NEW DELHI: The Bihar poll outcome is likely to keep parties on their edge for far longer on Tuesday. In 2015 when the battle lines were clearer between the Grand Alliance and the NDA, as many as 52 of the total 243 seats which witnessed a see-saw change in electoral fortunes of candidates.
Eight Assembly seats saw victory margin less than 1,000 votes, while another eight had 3,000 votes separating winners and losers. In total, 52 seats had victory margins within 10,000 votes with a majority of them below the 7,000-mark.
The 2020 results can be expected to chaotic because of the presence of a large number of candidates on account of three prominent regional aspirants — Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party and Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav’ Jan Adhikar Party — staying away from the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.
In 2015, the battle lines were sharply drawn in the eastern state between the BJP-LJP-Hindustani Awam Morcha and the JD(U)-RJD-Congress.
The rise of sub-regional aspirations accompanied by the caste assertions of non-dominant social groups could further narrow the victory margin in a large number of seats. In 2015, Bihar’s Seemanchal, Mithila and Magadh regions had witnessed close contests due to demography and caste combinations.
The Seemanchal region which went to the poll in the last phase could again see narrow victory margins due to three-time former Madhepura MP Pappu Yadav, who is known to have a strong followings among the Yadav community in south of the Ganga.
If LJP chief Chirag Paswan is seen harming the interests of JD (U) on a large number of constituencies, the outfit along with Jan Adhikar Party is seen splitting the caste mainstay of the RJD due to candidate selections.
