MUZAFFARPUR: In the run-up to the polls, Tejashwi Yadav had drawn huge crowds to his rallies – as many as 251 — unsettling his opponents to an extent that his party as well the Grand Alliance believed they were within the striking distance of a unique victory. It’d now appear that the RJD could not translate that crowd support entirely into votes.
That plus ‘social engineering’ that he sought to inject into ticket distribution seems to have had a limited success.
Take a look at the larger MY (Muslim-Yadav) matrix: Of the 144 candidates the RJD fielded, only 58, or 40%, were Yadavs. In 2015, out of 101 seats contested, 65 were Yadavs, or 64% belonging to that community.
Similarly, the RJD this time fielded 17 Muslim candidates, down from 21 in the last polls.
Analysts believe that the Yadav votes got divided after RJD fielded upper caste candidates such as the Brahmans and Bhumihars, which harmed the party.
“The social engineering attempted by RJD this time has led to division in Yadav votes,” says political observer Law Kumar Mishra.
“It harmed the RJD more in the third phase, while it had little impact in the first and second phase of polling,” he said.
Economist Naval Kishore Chaudhary, however, believes that despite all odds, Tejashwi has established himself as a leader in Bihar even though he is unlikely to become the CM.
“Tejashwi might have lost electorally, but he has won politically,” says Chaudhary.“He seems to have miscalculated the MY arithmetic in his attempt to widen the party’s caste influence among other sections by giving tickets to them,” said Chaudhary.
He says three factors play a major role in polls: the leadership quality in which Nitish has no match, past-performance, in which he also had an edge over Tejashwi, who is carrying the legacy of his father and mother, and finally, caste or religion, which Nitish Kumar handled very smartly by taking upper caste people and BJP along with him.
Many say that crowds coming to a rally cannot be the only barometer of a leader’s popularity.
“Most of those who came to Tejashwi’s rallies were teenagers and minors, who were more anxious to see him alight from the chopper,” said a retired sugar mill employee Ashok Sahi of Kamtaul village under Kurhandi Assembly seat in Muzaffarpur.
Shambhu Tiwary, a wildlife activist-cum-social researcher of Patna, said crowd’s behaviour cannot be trusted.
“Tejashwi drew crowds mostly from MY section. His promise of 10 lakh jobs to the youth was countered effectively by NDA leaders who dubbed it as impractical. In a state facing a severe financial crunch, promises do matter, but what matters more is the motive behind them,” he said.
As for the turnout at rallies, he said Bihar saw a similar situation in 2015 when the BJP failed to come to power despite well-attended rallies of PM Modi.
Mukesh Kumar of Kanti Assembly seat in Muzaffarpur said as Tejashwi went on making promises, people became convinced that he was getting nervous about his party’s performance.
"Everyone knows there is a difference between creating job opportunities and providing jobs,” said Mukesh.
Tejashwi tried to ‘rectify’ the RJD’s negative image as projected by the party’s adversaries about his parents – former CMs Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi.
He avoided their photos on posters and banners during the campaign which does not seem to have gone down well with staunch RJD supporters.