NEW DELHI: With the exit polls having gone wrong in predicting the Bihar election results, experts said research often fails to capture when it comes to thin margins and multi-party contests.
Most agencies had projected Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagatbandhan would win. However, the NDA will be forming the next government in the state.
Sanjay Kumar from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies said, “If you have multiple parties in an election, it is a bigger challenge...This was a bipolar contest but there were other players as well. It was a much bigger challenge for any pollster to make assessment about the vote...If you look at the vote estimates, the vote between Gathbandhan and NDA is the same. It has been a very close contest, then estimating vote and seats at such precision becomes extremely difficult.”
“What is the parameter for which you judge an opinion poll? If the parameter was seats, then it is a wrong expectation from any exit poll. If the vote estimates were right, there is no reason to believe the opinion polls were absolutely wrong. All these came as a challenge in Bihar,” he added.
The exit polls lacked a thorough theoretical framework and could not capture the pulse of regional politics of Bihar, said Bihar-based political analyst Nawal Kishore Chaudhary.
“They do not have an understanding on the socio-politico-economic dynamics of Bihar,” said Chaudhary.
Votersmood Research founder Jai Mrug said researchers often capture one particular segment from the ground.
“There is no doubt that there was a swing in favour of Yadav but you tend to inaccurately estimate the extent of the swing. This often leads to a wrong poll. The fact that the Opposition was playing catch up was captured by all the polls.”
