NEW DELHI: Universal mask use in India could save nearly 1.32 lakh lives up to February next year, lowering the numbers of projected Covid-19 deaths by nearly 37%, according to the first analysis to estimate lives saved through usage of masks.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, has come out with this estimation just days after PM Modi launched a campaign on Jan Andolan for Covid-19 appropriate behaviour.
The campaign started in view of the upcoming festivals and winter season as well as the opening up of the economy, emphasises on wearing masks, maintaining hand hygiene and social distancing at all times.
India’s mask use was about 70% on July 2020, estimated via a Facebook-assisted survey and that may be a limitation as the use was assessed only among people with FB accounts.
India’s projected deaths of 3,54,000 by February next year assumes 67% mask use and the reduction occurs under universal mask use, defined as 95% or more people using masks outside their homes.
So far, 1,09,150 people have lost lives which puts the number of confirmed cases at 71,20,538 in India. “Use of simple masks can reduce transmission of Covid-19 by 40%,” noted the researchers adding that it will lead to a reduction of 815,600 deaths between August 26, and January 1 next year.
The study also said that the effect of universal mask use is greatest in countries such as India (158,832 fewer deaths in universal mask scenario, 75,152 to 282,838 deaths), the USA (93,495 fewer deaths; 59,329 to 150,967 deaths), and Russia (68,531 fewer 29 deaths; 34,249 to 145,960 deaths).
The 47-page long estimation stresses that the rising toll of the Covid-19 pandemic can be substantially reduced by the universal adoption of masks.
“This low-cost policy, whether customary or mandated, has enormous health benefits and likely large economic benefits as well, by delaying the need for re-imposition of social distancing mandates,” it adds.
Before this paper, one meta-analysis of 21 studies reported a pooled reduction in the risk of respiratory virus infection of 47% from a subset of eight studies reporting on mask use in non-health workers but it did not distinguish the type of mask.
Another meta-analysis reported on 26 studies of mask use in health 40 workers and three studies in non-healthcare settings which led to a pooled effect of a 66% reduction in infections and a reduction by 44% in the three non-healthcare setting studies.