NEW DELHI: Intense heatwaves, cyclones, glacial lake outburst floods, and landslides, increased precipitation, glacial melt, and ocean warming are projected to impact India in the coming years, said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released Monday.
The report says that heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent during the 21st century in India and both annual and summer monsoon precipitation will increase during the 21st century, with enhanced interannual variability.
The surface the Indian Ocean has warmed faster than the global average. “This will further intensify the cyclones, extreme rains, and sea-level rise along the coast of India. We already see a 50% increase in Arabian Sea cyclones and a 3-fold rise in extreme rains causing floods,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, Senior Scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology & Lead Author, IPCC SROCC.
While concerns are raised about the melting of Himalayan glaciers, the report says snow cover has reduced since the early 21st century, and glaciers have thinned, retreated, and lost mass since the 1970s, although the Karakoram glaciers have either slightly gained mass or are in an approximately balanced state.
“Snow-covered areas and snow volumes will decrease during the 21st century, snowline elevations will rise and glacier mass is likely to decline with greater mass loss in higher greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Rising temperature and precipitation can increase the occurrence of glacial lake outburst floods and landslides over moraine-dammed lakes,” it said.
Warming over India is projected to track the global average and the nation is expected to see an increase in frequency and severity of hot extremes. Globally, 1-in-10 year hot extreme events will occur 5 times more frequently at 2°C. At 4°C these 1-in-10 events will likely happen 9.4 times in a 10 year period, nearly once a year on average. There are likely to be 90 to 120 days in a year with maximum temperatures above 35°C in case of 1.5 to 2°C warming and over 180 days in case of 4°C warming.
Ulka Kelkar, Director, Climate Program, World Resources Institute India (WRI), said: "For India, the predictions in this report mean people labouring in longer and more frequent heatwaves, warmer nights for our winter crops, erratic monsoon rains for our summer crops, destructive floods and storms that disrupt power supply for drinking water or medical oxygen production."
An increase in annual mean precipitation is projected. The increase in rainfall will be more severe over southern parts of India. On the southwest coast, rainfall could increase by around 20%, relative to 1850-1900. If we warm by 4°C, India could see about a 40% increase in precipitation annually.