SRINAGAR: Security experts are apprehensive that the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan is likely to have an impact on Jammu and Kashmir situation and there is every possibility that infiltration and violence levels are likely to go up.
Former J&K DGP SP Vaid told The New Indian Express that during the Taliban regime from 1996-2001, there was a lot of infiltration of foreign militants into Jammu and Kashmir. "It was during this period, the parliament attack and Fiyadeen attacks took place."
Close to 7905 militants were killed in encounters with security forces in J&K from 1996-2001 and of them, 2018 were foreigners. During the five-year period, 1904 security men were also killed in militancy violence in J&K.
Vaid said Pakistan has been looking for strategic depth and the Taliban administration in Kabul will help. “Now Pakistan will be shifting all the militant training camps to Afghanistan and will tell the world that they have got no role in training militants in J&K. They will provide advanced training to militants and then push them into J&K to increase violence,” he said.
Another former J&K police chief Kuldip Khoda said Taliban dispensation in Afghanistan will not only be totally Pakistan friendly but would also be controlled from the neighboutring country to a large extent. “They (Taliban) owe a lot to Pakistan for the present situation in Afghanistan. For India, it is a very tricky situation,” he said. According to Khoda, since Taliban owe it (their victory) to Pakistan, its administration will be tuned to large extent to the latter's interests and it cannot be ruled out that Pakistan will be using young Taliban cadres into Kashmir.
“Taliban will be helpful to Pakistan and will be driven by ISI and it will have adverse impact on J&K. They will try to increase militancy level and we have to be better prepared to meet that challenge,” he said.
However, retired army general and former GoC of Srinagar-based Army’s 15 Corps Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain said 2021 is not 1989 and India is far more confident as a nation. “Our armed forces and agencies have 30 years experience in handling security situation in J&K. We have brought the situation to near normalcy in J&K after the decisions of Aug 5, 2019. However, Pakistan's capability to trigger passion and separatism is still existent as all networks have not been neutralised. So the potential definitely exists but a lot depends on how far the Taliban is willing to go with Pakistan and its strategy,” he said.
Hasnain admitted that there is a distinct possibility of Taliban administration impacting the situation in Jammu and Kashmir. “Although J&K has very few registered militants today, there are enough overground workers, separatists and sympathizers for the larger Islamic cause. The ripple effect of events in Afghanistan does affect J&K from an inspirational angle. The defeat of the US and the Afghan National Army and the ability of the Taliban to carry the jihadist flag to win the war militarily will have its effect on those who perceive they are being persecuted. This perception has to be corrected by constant engagement and outreach by the Security Forces, political community, intelligence agencies and all departments of the Central and J&K governments. There will be much propaganda from Pakistan through social media. We have to develop proactive means to counter thisy,” he added.