GUWAHATI: The October 30 by-elections to nine seats in the Northeast will be a litmus test for the Congress, which has done badly in recent Assembly elections across the region that was once its stronghold.
Of the nine constituencies, five are in Assam, three in Meghalaya and one in Mizoram. The Congress is the only party to have fielded candidates in all seats.
In Assam, three turncoats are the BJP candidates, contesting from Mariani, Thowra and Bhabanipur seats.
Sitting MLAs Rupjyoti Kurmi (Mariani) and Sushanta Borgohain (Thowra) dealt a body blow to the Congress by defecting to the BJP within months of winning the polls. Later, the Bhabanipur MLA Phanidhar Talukdar quit the minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) to wear saffron.
Their defections and the deaths of the sitting MLAs of Gossaigaon and Tamulpur in Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) necessitated the by-elections. BJP ally United People's Party Liberal is contesting from the two seats in BTR and likely to win both.
The family of Kurmi, an Adivasi (Tea Tribe), has held the Mariani seat for 30 years with a gap of two years. The tea garden voters decide the fate of the Mariani candidates and Kurmi's defection has annoyed a section of them.
The BJP is also likely to face a challenge from Congress and Raijor Dal in Thowra and from the AIUDF in Bhabanipur where the Muslims have a sizeable number of voters.
The Congress is confident that people will reject Kurmi as well as Borgohain for their betrayal.
In Meghalaya, the Congress is hoping to retain Mawryngkneng and Rajabala seats. The third seat going to polls is Mawphlang. The deaths of the sitting MLAs necessitated the elections.
Meghalaya is the only state in the Northeast where the position of the Congress is relatively better.
In Mizoram, the Congress will try to regain the Tuirial seat. The party had lost the seat to the Zoram People's Movement in the 2018 elections. It fell vacant after the sitting MLA's death.
Altogether 31 candidates are contesting the five seats in Assam. Meghalaya and Mizoram have 13 and four candidates respectively.