BENGALURU: The Taliban takeover is not a good prognosis for India’s security and trade with hostile neighbours on either side of its borders, who have close proximity to the Taliban, said D Suba Chandran of International Strategic & Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS).
From the security point of view, he said, India will have to be on its toes with the field now wide open for banned terrorist groups like Jaish, Lashkar and Haqqani network to expand their bases and training facilities in Afghanistan.
“It is a tough situation for India. We were not very serious about the Taliban. We now have to open a channel with them, which may not be easy, given their proximity to Pakistan and China. Pakistan is close to both sides of the Taliban — those on the negotiating table in Qatar and those fighting on the ground,” said Chandran. “India has large and long term political and economic investments in the embattled country, which stand endangered given the new reality of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate.”
“India will have to turn to Iran and Russia for the success of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) — the 13-nation-strong multi-modal trade route which connects India with Central Asia and Russia. It has the potential to expand up to Baltic, Nordic, and Arctic regions. It is difficult to say what cooperation we can expect from Iran and Russia,” added Chandran.
On what is the road forward for India, he said: “Given our own limitations, it is important that India hosts Afghan refugees.” “We have opened our doors to Tibetans and Tamils. We need to reach out to
Afghans similarly.” No regime has lasted more than 10 years, he said, adding India has to wait and watch.