NEW DELHI: There is unanimity among security experts that the recent developments in Afghanistan will have implications in the insurgency in Kashmir even as they expressed varying degrees of threat to the situation in the Valley.
Former J&K police chief SP Vaid expressed his apprehension in strong words. “Pakistan will now shift terror training camps of Jaish and Lashkar from PoK to Afghanistan for avoiding international scrutiny and for claiming that it has no role in the violence in Kashmir. It suits Pakistan. Anti-India terror groups would get safe havens in Afghanistan.”
Asserting that Afghanistan’s soil could now be used to plan big attacks such as the 9/11 and embolden terrorists in Kashmir, Vaid said Pakistan may ask the Taliban to divert some of its ranks to J&K for reviving terror operations. “9/11 happened from the soil of Afghanistan while the Taliban were ruling, so what is the guarantee something big like that won’t happen again?”
Senior defence analyst Maj Gen SB Asthana (retd) went a step further saying the export of terrorism was “quite possible and will be faster than we expect”. Its first impact will be Pakistan itself as the resurgent Taliban would not be so pliant to Islamabad, he added.
Over the past few years multiple reports prepared by the United Nations have claimed that groups like the Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba were working in close coordination with the Taliban.
Pravin Sawhney, a retired Army officer and strategic analyst, did not consider Taliban’s taking over Kabul would have such direct effects on Kashmir, since the Taliban would try to endear itself to the international community for support. However, in his view, Kashmir will not remain unaffected by new regional geopolitics.
“We have our own indigenous problems in J&K. The biggest problem is that we are unable to differentiate between terrorism and insurgency. The problem there is insurgency. What is happening there has the support of people. The Kashmir situation in any case is volatile and people, in my estimation, feel alienated.”
He added Pakistan has now a great opportunity to showcase to the world that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is indeed the flagship project of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).