NEW DELHI: Ahead of the G20 Summit in Rome, a new climate impact report found that India is among the countries that could all see more than 10 per cent knocked off their GDP due to worsening climate impacts. The others include the US, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and South Korea.
The study, conducted by a team of over 40 scientists at CMCC, a research centre that serves as the Italian focal point for the IPCC, found that climate impacts are already hitting the G20. Over the last 20 years, heat-related deaths have increased by at least 15 per cent in all G20 countries, while forest fires in the G20 have burnt an area one and a half times the size of Canada.
The report finds that the G20 as a whole stands to lose about 4 per cent of GDP due to climate shocks as soon as 2050 and 8 per cent by 2100. “Heatwaves will last 25 times longer by 2036-2065 if emissions are high (4 degree C), over five times longer if global temperature rise is constrained to about 2 degree C, and one-and-a-half times longer if emissions are very low and temperature rise only reaches 1.5 degree C,” it said with respect to India.
It says that just under 18 million Indians could be at risk of river flooding by 2050 if emissions are high, compared to 1.3 million today. Even assuming sufficient water and nutrient supplies, not including the impact of climate change on pests or diseases, or extreme events such as floods or storms, and including a strong effect of CO2 fertilization, sugarcane, rice, wheat, and maize yields in India would fall as the climate warms, the report projects.
18 million Indians could be at risk of flooding
Nearly 18 million Indians could be at risk of river flooding by 2050 if emissions are high, compared to 1.3 million today. Total labour is expected to decline by 13.4% under a low emissions scenario by 2050 and by 24% under medium emissions scenario by 2080.