CHENNAI: In politics, unlike in sports, the game swinging in unexpected ways in the dying seconds is quite rare. So, going by the exit polls, Gujarat is unlikely to throw up surprises. A victory would prove to be a morale booster for the saffron party ahead of 2024 general elections.
The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to come back to power with elan. The saffron party has been enjoying power in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state since 1995.
In the 14th Gujarat Legislative Assembly (2017 polls), the BJP had a strength of 99 legislators, down from 115 in 2012. The Congress did better in 2017 by winning 77 seats.
However, this time around, despite Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra being a spectacle and a show of strength, the BJP is predicted to sweep the polls in Gujarat.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was not able to put up a good show if exit polls are any indication.
Exit Polls, Gujarat
Aaj Tak-Axis My India predicted 129-151 seats for the Gujarat. The ABP-CVoter gave BJP 128-140 seats. News X- Jan Ki Baat predicted BJP to win 117-140 seats. Republic TV P-MARQ exit polls predicted 128-148 seats. Times Now-ETG, 139 seats, TV9 Gujarati, 125-130 seats and Zee News-BARC, 110-125 seats.
If the exit polls prove to be correct, this would be BJP's best performance since 2002, when it won a landslide in the state months after the riots in which 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, were killed.
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The Congress has no excuse for its poor peformance, though the party might say that its focus was on Bharat Jodo Yatra. This does not augur well for the party when the 2024 general elections are not far away.
Exit polls, Himachal Pradesh
In Himachal Pradesh, the exit polls suggest a close fight between BJP and the Congress. The Congress party lost power to the BJP in 2017. The BJP managed to win 44 seats against the 21 seats won by the Congress. This time, exit polls predict that BJP would win around 35-40 seats, while the Congress 30-40 seats. Will the saffron party survive anti-incumbency? It is going to be close.
If one looks at the details, Aaj Tak-Axis My India predicts Congress to pocket 30-40 seats while BJP, 24-34 seats. India TV-Matrize exit polls give BJP the edge with 35-40 seats while Congress, 26-31 seats. News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicts 33 seats each for the archrivals. News X- Jan Ki Baat gives BJP 32-40 seats and Congress 27-34 seats. Republic TV P-MARQ predicts BJP to gain 34-39 seats while Zee News-BARC gives BJP 35-40 seats.
Counting
The counting of votes in both states will take place on December 8.
Elections for the Himachal Pradesh Assembly was held on November 12, while polling in Gujarat happened in two phases on December 1 and 5.