GUWAHATI: The fate of ruling BJP and opposition Congress in Manipur hinges on smaller political parties. Considering that various surveys predicted a hung House, the support of smaller parties such as National People’s Party (NPP), Naga People’s Front (NPF) and Janata Dal-United (JD-U) will be the key to the formation of the next government in this Northeast state.
In the 2017 polls, the BJP had bagged 21 seats as against the Congress’ 28 in the 60-member Assembly but managed to cobble up the numbers and form a coalition government. The NPF, NPP and some other smaller parties had then lent support to the BJP.
Despite being part of the BJP-headed government, the NPP and the NPF have not entered into any pre-poll alliance with the BJP this time. Also, the NPP’s relationship with the BJP has been stormy for the last two years. Ahead of this polls, the BJP was hit hard by the problem of plenty.
Denied tickets, a number of its leaders deserted the party.
The JD-U, which was not in the picture until recently, had received a shot in the arms when sitting MLAs Ksh Biren, Kh Joykisan, former MLAs Ashab Uddin, Samuel Jendai, Dr Kh Loken, Dr E Dwijamani and Md Abdul Nasir joined it.
Similarly, retired IAS officer P Saratchandra and former chairman of a state PSU N Joykumar joined the Congress, which had suffered a series of defections over the past five years.
Nearly half of its MLAs are now with the BJP. Also, five BJP leaders joined the NPP. The NPP had contested in nine seats in 2017 and won four. All four MLAs were inducted into the ministry. Buoyed by that success, the party is contesting in 41 seats.
According to people who follow Manipur politics closely, the smaller parties are likely to back any party that will be in a position to form the government.
Some suggest that the smaller parties had become bigger as several MLAs and former MLAs joined their fold.
Political analyst Pradip Phanjoubam said the pattern was set in the last polls.
“By supporting the BJP, smaller parties had got incentives in the form of berths in the ministry,” Phanjoubam said.
Stating that the BJP’s ties with the NPP have strained, he said the NPP was keeping its options open.
“If bargaining doesn’t work out, the NPP will try to align with the Congress. It has set a precedent by accepting the support of all five Congress MLAs in Meghalaya. So, if this can happen in Meghalaya, it can happen in Manipur too,” Phanjoubam said.
The NPF is contesting only in ten seats and it has to be with a bigger party. The “division” in the BJP over the selection of candidates is likely to throw up a fractured verdict, he added.
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