Neck and neck fight predicted between BJP and SP-RLD alliance in western UP

Despite ‘Punish BJP’ call by Rakesh Tikait and farmers' unaddressed concerns, a section of Jats would continue to pledge support to BJP.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath (L) and Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath (L) and Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav

SHAMLI/BAGHPAT/MUZZAGARNAGAR: It's the battle for legacies in Jat and Muslim-dominated Western Uttar Pradesh that goes to the polls on February 10. The fight is between the “work done” by Babaji (CM Yogi Adityanath) and legacies of two famous Jat leaders -- former PM Chaudhary Charan Singh and farmer leader Mahendra Singh Tikait -- as there is anger among farmers against the BJP.

The 'baap-dada' (elders) allegiance to their clan icons still runs deep among people in the districts of Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, and Meerut but communal narrative changed things electorally since 2013 with Jats voting en masse for the BJP. About 90 per cent of Jats in Western UP voted for the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha election while 77 per cent in the 2017 assembly election.

However, this year the communal divide seemingly looks narrowed with the farmer agenda on top of the mind of Jats. Repeated ‘Punish BJP’ call by Bhartiya Kisan Union leader Rakesh Tikait and unaddressed concerns of the farming community are expected to swing a section of Jats continue to pledge support to BJP and the rest towards the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which is contesting in alliance with the Samajwadi Party in the state.

Chaudhary Rajveer Baliyan, who was at the Gazipur border for 10 months during farmer agitation, says that the protest changed everything (loyalty to party) for Jats and that most of them would abide by the call given by Tikait.

“He (Tikait) is the head of our clan and very respectable to us and we will do whatever he says. When the Yogi government has shut its eyes on farmers, then how can they see problems faced by farmers,” says a frail-looking Baliyan, 65, as he is busy cutting sugarcane crop. He comes from the Budhana assembly constituency in Muzaffarnagar.

Many in the community remember former prime minister Chaudhary Charan Singh’s work and how his son and former union minister Ajit Singh. “All sugar mills in the region are because of him,” says Rajender Singh, a farmer from Baraut constituency in Baghpat. UP is the country’s biggest sugarcane growing and producing state.

The BJP won 53 of 58 constituencies that will witness polling in the first phase in the region. The seats spanning 11 districts have a high Muslim population, who have traditionally voted for Akhilesh’s party.

There are some who are upset that neither Ajit nor his son, Jayant, who is now leading the RLD, turned up after the 2013 Muzzafarnagar riots, that saw Jat-Muslim up in arms against each other, to meet the affected families.

“Sonia Gandhi came and met Muslim families but there was none to back us … our leader (Ajit) also left us. It was BJP that spoke in our favour and ‘Babaji’ has taken several steps to benefit farmers. We get money under PM Kisan and ration was given to the poor during Covid, law and the order has improved in this region. We respect our farmer leaders but will vote for the party that stands behind us when we need them,” says Vijender Singh, who comes from the Kairana constituency in Shamli which was the hub of the 2013 riots.

The people irrespective of their loyalties, however, never fail to mention that there is ‘Kante ki Takkar’ (neck and neck) between the gathbandhan (SP-RLD alliance) and BJP in the western UP but the former will have an edge.

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