LUCKNOW: As the stage is set for polling in 59 constituencies across 16 districts mainly covering the Yadav land of Uttar Pradesh in the third round of the ongoing seven-phase assembly elections on Sunday, the focus is back on the traditional caste cauldron of the state.
While the first two phases across 113 seats of western UP and Rohilkhand were largely focused on Muslim-Jat phenomenon, the region going to vote on February 20 is much diverse in its demographic configuration. It comprises the 29 seats of Yadavland comprising eight districts of Etawah, Manipuri, Kannauj, Firozabad, Auraiyya, Etah, Kasganj and Farrukhabad, 13 seats of five districts of Bundelkhand including Jhansi, Lalitpur, Jalaun, Hamirpur and Mahoba, 14 seats of Kanpur Dehat and Kanpur Nagar combined and three seats of Hathras.
The districts going to polls in third phase comprise of Mainpuri, Etawah, Farrukhabad, Kannauj, Auraiyya, Firozabad, Etah, Hathras, Kasganj, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Jalaun, Mahoba, Kanpur Dehat, Kanpur Nagar and Hamirpur.
As many as 627 candidates of which 97 women are in the fray from 59 seats across 16 districts going to polls in the third phase which has around 2.16 crore electorate of which 1.16 crore are men and 99,62,324 women. In 2017, the BJP had won 49 of 59 seats going to polls in third phase. Samajwadi Party was decimated in the Yadav belt with just eight seats under the sweeping Modi wave in
2017.
While the BSP and Congress had won one seat each. Of the 59 seats going to polls on Sunday, 11 are reserved. On the contrary, in 2012 assembly elections, SP had won 25 of the 29 seats of Yadav belt.
In 2017, the outstanding performance of the ruling BJP could be attributed to its new caste arithmetic which brought non-Yadav OBC s and non-Jatav SCs in consolidation for it. The BJP had demolished the Samajwadi Party in the core Yadav land, swept away the Bahujan Samaj Party in Bundelkhand and had dominated the elections in the urban stronghold of Kanpur region.
The 2022 battle which is being seen more as a straight fight between the BJP and the SP, it will be interesting to see if the ruling party’s “caste arithmetic" still works or has it been breached by Akhilesh Yadav’s “new Samajwadi Party" which has a bouquet of alliances with smaller caste based outfits.
Again, a lot will depend on the voting pattern of the non-Yadav other backward classes (OBCs) often referred to as the MBCs (most backward classes). Right from Lodhs in Etah and Kasganj to Maurya, Kushwaha, Shakyas and Sainis in traditional Yadav land of Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etawah, Auraiya and Kanpur Dehat will be crucial.
The non-Yadav OBC and the SCs will also decide the fate of the parties in Bunedlkhand. In all, 13 out of 19 seats of Bundelkhand will have voting in phase 3. Four seats of Banda and two in Chitrakoot will go to the polls in phases four and five respectively.
Similarly, in Kannauj, Farukhabad and Kanpur, while the BJP faces the challenge of holding its fort depending upon the traditional upper castes and the MBC and the most Dalit factor, the SP will fight to restore its lost glory.
On the seats going to polls in third phase, law and order, price rise and unemployment emerged as the major issues finding echo on the ground. Moreover, the implementation of welfare schemes and their benefits reaching the common man also has prominent traction on the ground.
The “double-engine government" growth phenomenon, about which both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath had been aggressively talking also converges on the very crucial new beneficiary class or the “labharthies”, a group of economically deprived and the poor who mostly come from the MBC and the Dalit sub-castes.
However, in Bundelkhand that has often been considered to be a relatively backward region, the “labharthies” (beneficiaries) and the big development focus including upcoming defence corridor, irrigation project and potable water project, could be a game changer for the BJP.
On the other, Samajwadi Party has been harping of unemployment, farmers issues besides offering a number of freebies to the voters. He has promised free power, free cylinders, free laptops, pension schemes, restoration of old pension for state employees and creation of 22 lakh jobs in I-T sector.
The assembly segments going to the polls in this phase are Hathras (SC), Sadabad, Sikandra Rao, Tundla (SC), Jasrana, Firozabad, Shikohabad, Sirsaganj, Kasganj, Amopur, Patiali, Aliganj, Etah, Marhara, Jalesar (SC), Mainpuri, Bhogaon, Kishni (SC), Karhal, Kayamganj (SC), Amritpur, Farrukhabad, Bhojpur, Chhibramau, Tirwa, Kannauj (SC), Jaswantnagar, Etawah, Bharthana (SC), Bidhuna, Dibiyapur, Auraiya (SC), Rasulabad (SC), Akbarpur-Rania, Sikandra, Bhognipur,
Bilhaur (SC), Bithoor, Kalyanpur, Govindnagar, Sisamau, Aryanagar, Kidwai Nagar, Kanpur Cantt, Maharajpur, Ghatampur (SC), Madhaugarh, (220) Kalpi, Orai (SC), Babina, Jhansi Nagar, Mauranipur (SC), Garoutha, Lalitpur, Mehrauni (SC), Hamirpur, Rath (SC), Mahoba and Charkhari.