NEW DELHI: Despite tall claims of BJP leaders that the party will win more than 300 seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, an internal survey by the saffron camp has found that it may not be in a comfortable position to form the next government in the state.
The realignment of the RLD with main opposition SP has been found more damaging to BJP's vote bank besides the Lakhimpur-Kheri violence against farmers allegedly involving the son of a Union minister.
The assessment also found that the party has considerable sway over Scheduled Castes and backward communities but the polarization of minorities, Yadavs and upper caste farmers in favour of the SP-led opposition has landed the ruling side in an uncomfortable position.
"The Owaisi (AIMIM) factor has not created any division of minority votes. The minorities have been found more inclined towards the SP-led opposition alliance but the BSP has gradually been dividing the votes of SCs and other extremely marginalised communities, which may give electoral benefits to the BJP after the fourth round of elections," a BJP source said.
The sources further said the SP-RLD combine has posed a major challenge in more than 150 seats which are dominated by Jat and Yadav voters. However, a big relief for the BJP is that wherever PM Modi addresses an election rally, the party's electoral prospects improve to some extent.
The party is not banking much on the first three phases of the polls. "The second phase was basically the SP-phase. But we have started consolidating our vote bank with marathons meetings by its senior leaders," said party sources in Uttar Pradesh.
Recently, BJP national president JP Nadda had claimed that his party would win not less than 300 seats. However, the sources indicated that the BJP may have to look for post-poll allies to retain power in the state.