PRAYAGRAJ: With four phases of the seven-phase UP assembly election over, the cavalcade now enters the fifth phase taking the battle of the ballot from the banks of Saryu in Ayodhya to the confluence of Ganga, Yamuna and mythological Saraswati in Prayagraj covering expansive and fertile Gangetic plains of the state.
The UP elections are set to witness very interesting phases ahead in the east. In this phase, the political laboratories of contemporary politics woven around Hindutva by the saffron brigade and the issues ringing on the ground will be put to test.
From Ayodhya to Prayagraj and further Chitrakoot in Bundelkhand, will decide the fate of a number of bigwigs including six Yogi ministers -- UP Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya, civil aviation minister Nand Gopal Gupta Nandi, MSME minister Siddharth Nath Singh, social welfare minister Rampati Shastri, Rural Development Minister Rajendra Pratap Singh alias Moti Singh and a minister of state Chandrika Prasad Upadhyay.
This phase will also decide the fate of Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiyya in his bastion Kunda and Congress candidate Aradhna Mishra in Rampur Khas, the traditional pocket borough of the grand old party.
In the fifth phase, total of 61 seats across 12 districts will be at stake. In previous 2017 elections, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal (S) had together won 49 seats of 61. SP had won six seats, 02 BSP, and Congress had to be content with just one seat. Two independents including Raja Bhaiyya and Vinod Kumar Saroj had won from Kunda and Babaganj (SC) in the Pratapgarh district. However, in 2012 assembly polls, Samajwadi Party, making the first majority government on its own, had bagged 42 seats in this phase.
The districts going to polls in the fifth phase comprise Ayodhya, Raebareli Amethi, Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Kaushambi, Prayagraj, Barabanki, Bahraich, Shravasti, Gonda and Chitrakoot.
Since independence, Ayodhya is witnessing the first election away from the shadow of the decades-old Ram Janmabhoomi -Babri Masjid dispute which was settled by the Supreme Court in 2019. In fact, Ayodhya has seen many firsts during the last five years under Yogi rule. Besides its geographical expansion, the name of the temple town was given to the district formerly known as Faizabad.
In the erstwhile Faizabad, now Ayodhya, the BJP had won all the five assembly segments of Rudauli, Milkipur (SC), Bikapur, Gosaiganj and Ayodhya in 2017. The last five years have really been happening for Ayodhya. Fast-paced development for its makeover as ‘Navya Ayodhya’ in sync with the expression of Hindutva and the ongoing construction of the Ram Mandir to mention a few. The BJP would undoubtedly hope to cash in on the attention Yogi Adityanath gave to the temple town during the last five years paying it around 50 visits and putting it on the world tourism map.
Even sentiment associated with Ram temple is still playing out on the ground in Ayodhya. People acknowledge that the way for temple was paved by the court order but still attribute it to the BJP which had spearheaded the movement for it.
Moreover, the Ayodhya factor is expected to move the voters in nearby constituencies especially, in the Devipatan belt, comprising Gonda, Bahraich and Shravasti districts. This belt comprises of 16 seats. In 2017, the BJP had won 14 of them, one each having gone to the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party.
In the region, some constituencies have a significant chunk of the Muslim presence. The other backward classes (OBCs) voters are equally divided among Kurmi, Yadavs and the other OBCs. This had been the region under prominent saffron impact since the late 1980s till date.
On the other, Samajwadi Party is depending upon the consolidation of Muslims and OBCs, including non-Yadavs, in its favour. Moreover, law and order, free ration, and successful implementation of the government’s welfare schemes are also seen playing out on the ground in favour of the ruling party.
In Barabanki also, the ruling party hopes to continue its hold after winning five of the six seats losing one to SP in 2017. Identified with Deva Sharif, one of the most revered shrines and a symbol of communal harmony, Barabanki has pockets of Muslims dominating the population. Silent Hindutva to caste equations could be factors here.
Some battles in phase -5 will see the royals of yore being challenged by the subjects of the day. Raghu Raj Pratap Singh or ‘Raja Bhaiyya’ of the princely estate of Kunda in Pratapgarh is contesting again on his traditional seat facing his man Friday Gulshan Yadav from SP. Raja Bhaiyya is hoping for a seventh straight win in Kunda. Raja Bhaiya has now floated his own party – Jansatta Dal – fielding 18 candidates across UP. The other big name from a princely estate in an electoral contest is Raja Sanjay Sinh of Amethi. A long-term Congress loyalist, the former MP had joined the BJP in 2019. Now he is contesting the seat on a BJP ticket.
In 2017, the BJP fielded Dr Sanjay Sinh’s estranged wife Garima Singh I Amethi. She won but has been denied the ticket this time.
In Amethi, once known as a traditional Congress bastion, the BJP had won all the five seats of Tiloi, Salon, Jagdishpur, Gauriganj and Amethi in 2017. MLA Mayankeshwar Sharan Singh of the princely estate of Tiloi is again in the race on a BJP ticket. The region from Pratapgarh to Prayagraj via Kaushambi and Phulpur also goes to the polls in phase five. Out of the 12 constituencies of Prayagraj (erstwhile
Allahabad), the BJP and its ally Apna Dal (S) had won 9 in 2017. The SP had won one and the BSP had secured two seats. The Apna Dal (S) had also won two seats in the Pratapgarh district. All three seats of Kaushambi were won by the BJP.
This time, the political credibility and stature of the deputy chief minister and the BJP’s biggest OBC face Kesahv Maurya is at stake in Sirathu in Kaushambi. He is being challenged by Pallavi Patel of the Apna Dal faction, led by Krishna Patel, wife of Sonelal Patel.
However, Congress is fighting to save its last bastion of Rampur Khas in Pratapgarh. Veteran Congressmen and stalwart of UP politics Pramod Tiwari won the seat nine times since 1980. He, then, vacated it for daughter Aradhna Mishra in 2014 for a bypoll. She won again in 2017 and in 2022 facing BJP’s Nagesh Pratap Singh who, though defeated, had significantly reduced the Congress’s victory margin in 2017. He was beaten by only 20,000 votes.