MUMBAI: The results of upcoming Goa Assembly election are going to be unpredictable thanks to multiple parties — small and big — fighting for the pie.
Besides, the victory margin of candidates is usually very narrow in this small coastal state, making the final results highly susceptible to last-minute changes.
In the 2017 Assembly polls, the victory margin in 21 out of the total 40 seats was less than 5,000 votes and in seven of them, it was a close shave for the winner as the margin was less than 1,000 votes.
Similarly, the margin was less than 10,000 votes in 10 seats while only in one seat the winner could bag over 15,000 votes than his next rival.
Sumit Naik, a senior journalist analysing Goa politics, compared the situation to ‘many cooks spoil the broth’.
“In the same way many players in the fray can change the calculations of national parties,” he said.
In the previous Assembly election, the BJP’s vote share (32%) was more than that of Congress (28%). “But when it came to seats, Congress won in 17 while BJP could bag only 13.
Therefore, no one can predict in which way the wind is blowing in Goa. The state’s natural and political weathers are unpredictable.
There are some seats that are won at a margin of less than 100 votes. So, a few votes swinging any side can change the scenario,” Naik pointed out.
Another political observer said Goa’s demography is constantly changing.
“There is a continuous inward and outward movement of a section of population that has no political base or particular choice. These voters are fence-sitters and they vote as per the prevailing political atmosphere. In the last election, AAP was the main buzz. It didn’t win a single seat but was runner up in one seat and also bagged 6% vote share, which is significant. This time, the TMC is creating a buzz and the scene is constantly changing,” he added.
Goa Chief Minister Pramod Sawant had termed the AAP and TMC as “tourist parties”. “These tourist parties are not going to stay back in Goa,” Sawant said. Meanwhile, Girish Chondkar, president of Congress Goa unit, said the state’s politics may be volatile but the people are with his party.
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