LUCKNOW: The plains of the Yamuna-Ganga in western Uttar Pradesh include 22 districts in six divisions: Saharanpur division: Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Shamli districts. Moradabad division: Moradabad, Bijnor, Rampur, Amroha, Sambhal districts.
Bareilly division: Bareilly, Badaun, Pilibhit districts. Together, they constitute around 136 seats of the total 403 Assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh.
Assembly elections in UP have been staggered into seven phases beginning on February 10 and ending on March 7. In 2017 polls, the ruling BJP bagged 109 seats out of 136, the SP had to be content with 21, BSP 3, Congress 2 and RLD just one. Post farmers’ stir that continued for over a year, the BJP does not seem to be an easy wicket this time.
Reports indicate the emergence of the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) in the Jat belt as well as in other rural areas of the region, including Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Meerut and other districts would have a substantial impact on many seats. What’s causing worry for the BJP is that the BKU, though maintaining its declared neutrality, has kept up its demand for a law on the minimum support price, which is now a rallying point for non-BJP forces in the area.
That is despite the fact that the Centre has repealed the farm laws and has promised to examine the MSP issue.
A measure of the BKU impact, especially in the Jat belt, is visible from the throng of leaders visiting Rakesh Tikait’s residence in Sisauli village in Muzaffarnagar almost daily.
A senior BJP leader, who did not wish to be named, said, “We may get fewer seats than the previous elections, but we are coming back with certainty.”
The Jat party — Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal — has a ‘revival formula’ from the prolonged farmers’ protests.
Having a tie-up with Samajwadi Party, the SP-RLD alliance is heavily banking on the Jat-Muslim combination as both the communities are believed to have found some synergy on the ground owing to the farmers’ protests.
The Jats and Muslims had parted ways after the 2013 communal riots that had rocked Muzaffarnagar and Shamli. Those riots had not only helped the BJP to register an impressive win in 2017 but also had resonance at the national level and in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, as the saffron brigade won 71 of 80 parliamentary seats in UP.
The RLD won the solitary seat of Chhaprauli in 2017 state polls. Later, Chhaprauli MLA Sahendra Singh Ramala joined the BJP in 2018. He is now contesting as a BJP candidate from the same seat.
“Notwithstanding the withdrawal of farm laws, if 7-9% of Jats and 29% of Muslims come together in western UP, equations would change for the BJP,” says Ashutosh Mishra, a political analyst.
In the 2017 assembly polls, the Hindu exodus from Kairana and Kandhla found a mention in the BJP manifesto. It used it as a poll plank to damage the Samajwadi Party government.
The BJP has been raising the exodus issue again. As a result, the SP changed its candidate Nahid Hassan. Hassan is accused of warning Muslims against buying goods from Hindu traders.
This time, the ruling BJP is pinning hopes on various welfare schemes such as Kisan Samman Nidhi, PM Awas Yojna, loan waivers to small and marginal farmers and payment of cane dues. The state government on January 6 announced lowering the power charges of private tube-well owners.
However, the Lakhimpur Kheri violence is threatening to go against the ruling dispensation as the party has not taken any action against the junior Union minister so far though his son is facing murder charges and is in jail. Yet the overall law and order scenario is having some traction among voters of western UP.