NEW DELHI: IIT-Kanpur’s prediction of a fourth wave hitting India on June 22 going to come true? Experts say that despite India recording over 84,000 Covid-19 cases in two weeks, it can’t be said as no new variant has been detected that could lead to a next wave.
Most of the fresh cases being reported are from seven states, with Kerala recording the highest number of cases and deaths, followed by Maharashtra, and Delhi. Karnataka, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are the other states with high cases.
According to Dr Samiran Panda, Additional Director General, ICMR, and head of its Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases, the surge in the past 14 days cannot be termed the fourth wave. Stressing that the spike is not “a uniform phenomenon for the whole country,” Panda said only a few districts in some states are reporting cases. He, however, said much depends on whether a new variant is causing the surge.
“If we detect a new variant with an immune escape ability and serious disease-causing ability, then only we can think of it as a fourth wave. The good thing is we are not seeing any health-system burden as yet,” Panda said.
Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, co-chairman of IMA’s Covid-19 task force, said the uptick in numbers is small as so far no new variant has been detected. Researchers at IIT-Kanpur had predicted in February that the fourth wave would start on June 22 and would peak on August 23. They said it would end on October 24.