On 24 February, Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has killed over 350 civilians including an Indian student so far. While several nations have decided to send military support to Ukraine, India again abstained from voting at a UNSC meeting. Is India’s stand just? How will this war shape geopolitics are some of the questions answered by Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (Retd), ex-Army commander South Western, Eastern and Central Army Commands, defence & strategy expert in an exclusive interview with The New Indian Express. Excerpts:
Q. Is India's abstention from the UNSC a foregone conclusion given our proximity to Moscow?
Abstaining from voting at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) does not tantamount to supporting any side. It means that India has declined to take anyone’s side in an ongoing intra-European conflict and wishes to see it resolved through dialogue and discourse. Even NATO that could have had the maximum impact, interestingly, has decided to not intervene directly. So why this undue pressure on India to side with anyone? A parallel can be drawn in Aksai Chin, where much like Crimea, India’s territorial integrity has been violated. It is under military occupation by China but unfortunately, we have never seen or heard any Western world leader condemn China or threaten her with sanctions. Can we antagonize Russia when we have China and Pakistan on either side of our borders? We can’t be foolish to make an enemy out of Russia when we share the Eurasian continent with them.
Q. Will the US sanctions on Russia hurt India? What about our S 400 deal?
Under the prevailing situation, it is quite possible that the political will to apply Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) on India will be stronger in Washington. We did see the US State Department gave a statement recently that they understand India’s position on abstention at the UNSC, but I think they may be compelled to not let us have an exemption under the growing pressure of public opinion. India is also working on a rupee-based payment system with Russia if the West decides to cut Russia off from the SWIFT banking system. We may develop a system of payment similar to the one we have already developed with Iran. This is needed especially for the fertiliser industry as we are heavily dependent on Russia. Both Belarus and Russia hold half of the world’s potash reserves, an important chemical for the Indian fertiliser industry and agriculture.
Q. What should India look out for its own legitimacy in geopolitics and national security?
The current dispensation in India has always stressed upon the importance of a multi-polar world and making interest-based alliances. It is in India’s interest that there is reform undertaken in international organisations such as IMF, World Bank, WTO etc. to address the new geopolitical realities of the world prevailing now. We should not overlook the fact that these systems had come up when countries such as China, India, Japan, Brazil, Vietnam, UAE, Indonesia and Germany were not doing economically well. But now things have changed.
The US hegemony is no longer accommodated by the middle powers. The unilateral aggressive military actions by NATO in Serbia or later in Libya, have really hurt the credibility and trustworthiness of NATO in the eyes of the Global South.Despite issues with China on the LAC, India cannot overlook the fact that India and China have, on multiple occasions, shown a willingness to work together at international forums to protect our common interests. We must not forget that India and China had jointly fought a case against the US and the EU at the WTO on the issue of agriculture subsidy and won, resulting in an embarrassing economic loss to the Western powers.
Q. What happens to gas and oil hegemony? Russia is the third-largest supplier of gas and oil to the EU.
There are five pipelines that crossover from North Africa to the Mediterranean carrying oil and gas from Nigeria, Algeria and Libya. Plus, there is the Southern Gas Corridor, a joint investment between Azerbaijan, Turkey and the UK that can ramp up production and meet the demand to a certain extent from Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea gas fields. But I have been reading estimates by commodity market analysts that there will still be a gap of 50 bcm when, even if, all other alternatives are fully utilised by affected countries of Europe.
With such a large shortage of gas, it is clear that Europeans would have to brace themselves to face higher gas and electricity prices in the coming months.
Q. Do you see this war as a precursor to WW III? Is geopolitics tilting heavily in favour of the US and EU?
One can argue that WW III actually had already begun with the advent of the Arab Spring in 2011. Whether it was Libya, Yemen, Syria, Venezuela, Bolivia or Nicaragua, the West and Russia-China have always supported opposing sides in these internal strife and civil wars. For example, in Libya, the Russians supported the Haftar regime while the West backed the GNA regime in Tripoli. In Syria, the Russians militarily supported the Assad regime, while America supported the Kurds (Syrian Democratic Force) as also the Turkish-backed rebels (Free Syrian Army). The current ongoing military action in Eastern Europe was also a long time in the making because of covert rivalry between the West and Moscow.
Q. Does Putin's call for the alert on nuclear deterrents mean that he may press the nuke button?
Putin has already clearly indicated that all options are on the table, but a nuclear attack would be a step too far in my opinion. Russia would also lose the moral high ground which they seem to maintain by repeatedly mentioning in their Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) press briefs that the Russian military has been strictly instructed not to hurt the civilian population. Their attacks, according to the Russian MFA, have supposedly been restricted mostly to military infrastructure and military bases near major towns.
Q. Who stands to gain from this war?
As Putin seems to have already lost both the media and the economic war, it is imperative for Moscow to win the military war. As of now, it seems that the US and the UK have come out on top in this conflict. They have managed to achieve three of their long-term goals; to stall the operationalisation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline by pressurising Germany; build a political will within the EU to cut off Russia from the SWIFT banking system and, the US has also managed to push their European counterparts in NATO to contribute more towards their collective military goals. Germany has promised to increase their military budget to two percent of its GDP which comes to USD 100 billion a year, almost twice what India, which is considered a major military power, spends on its military.
Q. How do you see this war end?
It is difficult to predict the end of his war at this stage since the conflict has just begun, even Americans took two weeks to reach Baghdad and another week to capture it. Russia’s goal is to demilitarise Ukraine and to remove the far-right elements from Kyiv. It is actually too early to tell how things would unfold. The talks have begun with the first round getting over yesterday. Once they meet for the second round, it will give a clear indication of some scaling down; but definitely not without Russian strategic interests being taken care of in the forefront. Both countries are moving ahead to talk with each other without any mediator within four days of commencement of military action is a very positive indication in my view.