VARANASI: As the poll juggernaut in UP enters the seventh gate of the proverbial chakrvyuh comprising nine districts of Purvanchal on Monday, the stage is decked up with Modi-Yogi combination of the ruling BJP on one side and the Akhilesh Yadav-led alliance on the other.
In the middle, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s Congress are seen trying to get a foothold.
If the ruling BJP has the tough task of sustaining its dominance besides making forays into the so-far unexplored territories, the main opposition, SP, faces the challenge of not only defending its stronghold in Azamgarh but also expanding its influence across the region.
In a way, both BJP and SP will depend on their respective allies’ performance to sail through in the region.
In 2017, 29 of the 54 seats in the fray were won by the BJP and seven by its allies — Apna Dal (S) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP). The SP was victorious on 11 seats and six had gone to BSP.
NISHAD had won one seat in Bhadohi. Congress had failed to open account in this phase in 2017.
However, this time the SBSP is contesting as SP ally. BJP is depending on the charisma of PM Narendra Modi as the sole influencer in the region.
Taking command of the BJP campaign in his hands, Modi camped in Varanasi, his parliamentary constituency, for 29 hours to make the equations favourable for the party.
It is believed that Modi’s presence in Varanasi on poll eve might have turned the situation in the saffron camp’s favour.
Besides, the BJP has also been pinning hopes on the beneficiaries of welfare schemes and the women voters among whom the law and order issue is seen to have a resonance.
The Nishad party, which contested independently, had won one seat in 2017. This outfit, representing the boatmen community present in considerable chunks across eastern UP, is now with the BJP and has three candidates in the final phase.
On the other, SBSP, in alliance with the SP, is set to benefit the main opposition party in its final assault. SBSP, led by OP Rajbhar, is contesting 17 seats across the state of which eight are at stake in the final phase.
The SP leadership is banking upon Rajbhar votes combining with the strong presence of Yadav-OBCs in the eastern region.
SP may also poach upon BJP’s Kurmi vote bank which had shifted to it in 2017 after its alliance with Apna Dal (S) led by Anupriya Patel, younger daughter of tall Kurmi leader of the region Sonelal Patel.
This time, Akhilesh Yadav has made the other faction — Apna Dal (K) — led by Anupriya’s mother Krishna Patel, part of his rainbow alliance. While Apna Dal (S) is contesting four seats, the other faction is contesting five seats in alliance with the SP in the final phase.
In Jaunpur, Ghazipur and Chanduli, the BJP had only got partial success in 2017. It had won four of the nine Jaunpur seats, three of the seven Ghazipur seats and four of the five Chanduli seats. SP had won three seats in Jaunpur, two in Ghazipur and one in Chandauli.
In Azamgarh, which has dominant Muslim-Yadav factor, BJP could bag just one of 10 segments here in 2017. Azamgarh has been a fortress of the SP which had won five of the 10 seats in 2017. Four had gone to the BSP.
In neighbouring Mau, the bastion of mafia don-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari who is the sitting MLA and currently in jail, eyes will set on his son Abbas Ansari who is contesting on SBSP ticket.
The SP hopes that along with Rajbhar factor and Ansaris’ clout, Mau will be regained. In 2017, the BJP had won three of the four seats in the district.
Big fights of last leg
In the seventh and final phase of UP Assembly election on Monday, the battle is more or less direct between BJP and SP in eastern UP.
Varanasi South 2017 | BJP
This is one of the most prestigious seats in UP. BJP has had a winning run since 1989 through ‘Dada’ Shyamdeo Roy Chaudhury, who won the seat seven times.
UP’s information and culture minister Neelkanth Tiwari(1) replaced Chaudhury in 2017 and won the seat.
This time, Tiwari is back in the fray facing strong anti-incumbency and a stiff challenge from Kameshwar Dixit(2) of SP. Like Tiwari, Dixit is also a lawyer, and the head priest of Maha Mrityunjay temple.
Varanasi Cantt 2017 | BJP
It’s a family seat of Srivastavas since 1991. Sitting BJP MLA Saurabh Srivastava is the son of Harish Chandra and Jyotsana Srivasatava, who have won the seats six times — Jyotsana four times and Harish Chandra twice.
Saurabh is facing Congress veteran Rajesh Mishra, a former MP from Varanasi. Mishra contested from Varanasi South last time and gave a tough fight to Neelkanth and is expected to do the same in Cantt this time.
SP has fielded Puja Yadav, the district president of Samajwadi Mahila Sabha. BSP candidate is a Brahmin — Kaushik Kumar Pandey.
Mau Sadar 2017 | BSP
Mafia-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari has maintained his strong hold over the seat since 1996. In 2017, Ansari won as a BSP candidate.
Lodged in jail for over two decades, this time, Mukhtar has been replaced by son Abbas(1), contesting as a SBSP candidate.
OP Rajbhar’s SBSP is in alliance with SP. Abbas is being challanged by BJP’s Ashok Singh(2).
In 2009, Ashok’s brother Ajay Pratap Singh alias Manna was shot in broad daylight. Mukhtar was the main accused in the case.
Zahurabad 2017 | SBSP
After winning the seat for the first time in alliance with the BJP in 2017, SBSP’s OP Rajbhar parted ways with NDA after much bitterness.
Now in one of the most bitterly fought contests in the state, all the three main contestants have won the seat at least once in the past.
While OP Rajbhar is in fray with SP’s support, BJP has fielded SP turncoat Kalicharan Rajbhar, who had won the seat twice in 2002 and 2007, but on a BSP ticket.
The third key contestant is BSP’s Syeda Shadab Fatima, a former minister in the Akhilesh government, but switched over to BSP just before the nominations when OP Rajbhar jumped into the fray as SP-SBSP candidate.
Ghosi 2017 | BJP
Former BJP minister Dara Singh Chauhan(1), who was among the eight BC leaders who quite the saffron camp to join the SP mid-January, has shifted from his traditional seat of Madhuban trying his luck from this seat once known as a Left bastion.
Since 1985, the present Bihar governor Fagu Chauhan has dominated the seat.
While Fagu’s son Ram Vilas has been fielded from Madhuban, BJP has roped in Vijay Rajbhar(2). Vijay is expected to get support of over 60,000 Rajbhars here.
Mohammadabad 2017 | BJP
Stage is set for Rai versus Ansari battle in this seat in Ghazipur with sitting BJP MLA Alka Rai being in the fray again. This time, SP has fielded the son of Sibghatullah Ansari, Suhaib alias Mannu from the seat.
Brother of jailed don Mukhtar Ansari, Sibghatullah has been a two-time MLA from Mohammadabad. His other brother Afzal Ansari is a BSP MP from Ghazipur.
Alka is wife of Krishnanand Rai who was gunned down in November 2005. It is alleged that Mukhtar was behind the killing.