GUWAHATI: The ruling BJP in Manipur is girding up its loins for celebration on Thursday – whether it wins a full majority or not.
The exit polls have predicted the party will win anything in the range of 25 to 43 seats in the 60-member House. Even if it does not touch the halfway mark of 30, the general perception is that it will emerge as the single largest party.
In the lead up-to the two-phase polls held on February 28 and March 5, there was little doubt the BJP will be the single largest party. A depleted and therefore weakened Congress – the state’s principal opposition party – made the BJP’s task easy. However, people are still skeptical if the saffron party can form the government on its own.
There are various factors why the BJP will do better than the other parties. One of them is its advantage of being in power at the Centre. It has been a tradition in most states in the Northeast that people vote largely in favour of that party that is in power at the Centre.
Secondly, the Congress considerably lost its ground in the state after half of its 28 MLAs jumped ship to be with the BJP. The Congress also lacked fresh blood and relied heavily on the seasoned former Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh as it went to the polls.
Incumbent Chief Minister N Biren Singh said people had voted for the BJP to allow peace and development to continue in the state.
“Violence, encounters, bandhs and blockades were common before 2017. The BJP established peace. As there was no disparity, all regions of the state developed equally over the past five years. We are confident the BJP will win a minimum of 40 seats,” Singh said.
If the polls throw up a hung Assembly, a BJP-headed coalition government appears likely. The Naga People’s Front (NPF) has already committed its support to the BJP. The BJP is also likely to get the support of its alleged “B Team” Janata Dal (United).
The Congress is not dreaming big. The party is hoping to win more than 20 seats and is open to alliance with any non-BJP party. It is in touch with the BJP’s estranged ally National People’s Party (NPP) which heads a coalition government in Meghalaya.
“NPP and Congress are natural allies. The BJP has thrown the NPP out of the ruling alliance. Our goal is that the BJP should not be able to form the government,” Congress spokesman K Debabrata told this newspaper.
“The NPF said it is not aligning with the Congress but if they want to come to us after the declaration of the results, they can do so. Our doors are open,” he added.
Given past experience, the Congress sent five observers, including Mukul Wasnik, to the state on Tuesday to keep its flock together. The Congress had contested 53 seats as against the BJP’s 60.
The JD-U also sent five of its MPs to the state to keep an eye on the process of counting of votes.