NEW DELHI: The world is getting hotter day by day and current mitigation effort is not enough to control the rising temperature, according to a new report released on Monday night on the emission gap. The 14th report of the United Nations Environment Programme states that the world is heading towards a 2.5-2.9 degrees Celsius temperature rise above pre-industrial levels if the current inadequate mitigation measure continues.
It urged countries to step up action and deliver more than what it committed under the Paris Agreement in 2015.
The report lays bare the vast contrast between the current trajectory and the Paris Accord goals, and underlined inequality in emission. Globally, the 10 per cent of the population with the highest income accounted for nearly half (48 %) of emissions. Two-thirds of this group live in developed countries. However, the bottom 50% of the world population contributed only 12 per cent of total emissions.
For instance, the USA accounted for 4% of the world population but contributed 17% of global warming from 1850 to 2021, including the impact of methane and nitrous oxide. India, by contrast, accounts for 18 per cent of the world population, but to date only contributed 5 per cent of warming.
The Paris Accord set a target to limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius and keep them below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial time between 2050 and 2100. The effort is to limit greenhouse gas emissions from human activity as much as it can be absorbed naturally by trees, soil and ocean. The report underlined that the world has less time left to ramp up its mitigation measures to achieve the Accord.
The pre-industrial level temperature was estimated around 1.2-1.3 degrees Celsius and rising temperatures will intensify natural disasters including increasing frequency of heatwaves, droughts, floods, human morbidity and deaths.
The Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)has urged countries must cut by at least 28-42% compared to current policy scenarios to get on track for the degrees Celsius and 1.5 degrees Celsius goals of the Paris Agreement respectively.
The report underlined current inadequate mitigation measures would lead to an increase in temperature rise to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels throughout this century.
The report analysed two conditions – unconditional and conditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a climate action plan to cut emissions and adapt to climate actions.
The unconditional and conditional NDCs for 2030 will only reduce 2% and 9% which will put the world on track for limiting temperature rise to 2.9 degrees Celsius and 2.5 degrees Celsius, respectively.
The report emphasised countries, especially bigger economies of G20, need to cut 2030 emissions by 28 per cent to get on a least-cost pathway for the 2 degrees Celsius goal of the Paris Agreement and 42 per cent for the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal.
“The latest report presents a chilling reality,” says Harjeet Singh, Head-Political Strategy of Climate Action Network International. “The window for action is rapidly closing, and unless we act urgently and dramatically to shift away from fossil fuels and embrace green energy, the chances of limiting warming to even 1.5°C are dismally low” he adds.
The report has recognised the progress since the Paris Agreement was signed. However, it underlined the need for significant ramping up implementation of mitigation measures to keep the window open for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius without significant overshoot.
Pointers:
1. Alarming Greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions and temperature records will intensify extreme weather events like heatwaves, floods, droughts and vector-borne disease.
2. GHG emissions increased by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 GtCO2e.
3. GHG emissions across the G20 increased by 1.2 per cent in 2022.
4. The latest Emissions Gap Report 2023 underline a catastrophic temperature rise, with predictions pointing towards a 2.5-2.9°C increase above pre-industrial levels if current trends continue.
5. Emissions remain unequally distributed within and between countries, reflecting global patterns of inequality.