El Nino may impact second half of monsoon, not good news for agriculture

IMD warned people that the first half of April would continue to witness more rainy days while the second half of April will witness a rise in temperature above normal.

Published: 02nd April 2023 11:22 AM  |   Last Updated: 02nd April 2023 04:12 PM   |  A+A-


Image used for representative purposes only. (Photo | KK Sundar, EPS)

Express News Service

NEW DELHI: In March, India witnessed the record highest heavy rainfall along with thunderstorms, lightning and hailstorms in large areas in the past five years. It caused the loss of human life, livestock and crops.

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the development of El Nino conditions, which would impact the second half of the monsoon, i.e. reduction in monsoon – not good news for Indian agriculture.

IMD also warned people that the first half of April would continue to witness more rainy days while the second half of April will witness a rise in temperature above normal. Meanwhile, an unusual March rainfall wreaked havoc on Indian agriculture and rural lives. 

The data shows that there were reportedly 105 incidents of heavy rainfall in March triggered by seven back-to-back western disturbances(WD). There were five severe WD moved across North and Central India during 14-22 March. 

In March, many stations reported heavy to very heavy rainfall
(Heavy rainfall range 64.5-115mm and Very Heavy rainfall range 115.6-204mm)

Year  No. of Stations reported Heavy to Very Rainfall
2023                 105
2022    19
2021   14
2020   50
2019   8
2018    41

Source: IMD

This year March climate was quite the opposite of last year. Last year, March was one of the hottest months, while this year, March's temperature was below normal. In the second half of March, most of the country experienced an unusually long spell of simultaneous thunderstorms, hailstorms, lightning and gusty wind. It caused the death of 68 people, injured 44, and caused the deaths of over 500 livestock. 

The havoc created by the heavy rains in the country

Death  Injury  Livestock death
Lightening 60  15  490
Heavy Rains   7 29   63
Hailstorm   1   0  0

IMD’s observation shows that the La Nina (cooling of the tropical pacific ocean) condition is over, and its transition to El Nino (warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean) has started. The El Nino condition impact would be visible during the second half of the monsoon, i.e. July-September 2023. However, the other models suggest a continuation of neutral conditions for El Nino.   

During the hot weather season (April-May-June), many parts of the country are expected to experience above-normal maximum temperatures. However, southern peninsular India and some parts of west-central India will share normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.


Disclaimer : We respect your thoughts and views! But we need to be judicious while moderating your comments. All the comments will be moderated by the newindianexpress.com editorial. Abstain from posting comments that are obscene, defamatory or inflammatory, and do not indulge in personal attacks. Try to avoid outside hyperlinks inside the comment. Help us delete comments that do not follow these guidelines.

The views expressed in comments published on newindianexpress.com are those of the comment writers alone. They do not represent the views or opinions of newindianexpress.com or its staff, nor do they represent the views or opinions of The New Indian Express Group, or any entity of, or affiliated with, The New Indian Express Group. newindianexpress.com reserves the right to take any or all comments down at any time.

flipboard facebook twitter whatsapp