NEW DELHI: India has not seen a surge in Covid-19 cases despite the presence of all Omicron sub-variants, including those shooting up numbers in China and the US.
Indian authorities had raised the alarm after a spike in Covid cases in neighbouring China and East Asia. They took several measures, including random testing of two per cent of international travellers and asking arrivals from hotspot countries like China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong to carry Covid negative reports.
But except for Kerala, which reported a marginal rise in Covid cases, no other state has reported a hike since health authorities asked states to step up vigil and surveillance and warned of a surge in January.
Since December second week, India has reported less than 1,500 Covid cases, said NC Krishnaprasad, a Covid data analyst from Kerala.
He told TNIE that “there has not been a significant rise in Covid cases and deaths across India.”
From December 15 to 21, India reported 1069 Covid cases and 16 deaths. Similarly, from December 22 to 28, 1399 Covid cases and 17 deaths were registered. The following week (December 29 to Jan 4), 1404 Covid cases and 12 deaths were reported.
From Jan 5 to Jan 10, 896 Covid cases have been registered, while 12 deaths have been reported so far, he said.
Said Dr K S Reddy, Distinguished Professor of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), “The Omicron family of variants are likely to cause periodic fluctuations in the numbers of infections, with ripples or mini-waves, but there is unlikely to be a tidal wave of serious cases.”
“We need to keep a watch on serious infections and feel reassured if those numbers are low,” he told TNIE.
According to Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, a renowned epidemiologist and co-chairman of the National Indian Medical Association (IMA) Covid-19 task force, a prime concern would be the generation of a variant that the world has not seen before.
“India is now ten months past the last wave, which puts the country at risk for a future wave, especially in the event of a markedly different version of the virus appearing either from within the country or outside,” he said, adding that from the limited airport surveillance data, no new variant has so far been identified.
Speaking with TNIE, Gautam Menon, Professor of Biology and Physics at Ashoka University, said that India has not seen a surge - despite the fear - due to hybrid immunity from a combination of past Delta and Omicron infections and doses of vaccination.
“This is expected to have a protective effect. Since the Chinese population has not sustained an infection before their opening up although they have been vaccinated, one would expect, as is indeed being seen, an increase in deaths in vulnerable populations such as the elderly.”
He, however, said that cases are likely to rise, but we are unlikely to see any significant and sustained surge in hospitalisations or severe disease.
According to the World Health Organisation, the South East Asia (SEARO) region has seen a 26 per cent dip in Covid cases from December 26 to January 1, as over 8,000 new cases were reported. The world health body said in the region, the highest proportional increases in new cases were reported from Timor-Leste, Nepal and Myanmar. Globally, during this period 22 per cent reduction in weekly cases was reported.
A WHO emergency committee will meet on January 27 to consider whether Covid-19 pandemic still represents a global emergency.
The health ministry also said on Monday that India had detected the presence of all Omicron sub-variants of Covid-19 in the community after testing more than 300 samples since December 29 and no mortality or rise in transmission has been reported.