LUCKNOW: The 17 reserved seats have a different flavour in the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh. The strategy to win them is charted differently. The different flavours are because these seats are won not on national issues.
Here basic needs of life matter more than symbols and narratives. The parties capable of getting traction right on the ground come out victorious on those 17 seats, which make the foundation of the outcome of the rest of the 63 Lok Sabha constituencies of the most crucial state of Hindi heartland.
BJP has been striking that formula on winning maximum reserved seats in the last two Lok Sabha polls. While in 2014, the strike rate of the saffron brigade was cent per cent, it lost two of 17 to the BSP, the political outfit with the strongest claim on Dalit premises, in 2019.
These 17 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes in UP including Nagina, Bulandshahr, Hathras, Agra, Shahjahanpur, Hardoi, Misrikh, Etawah, Bahraich, Jalaun, Mohanlalganj Kaushambi, Barabanki, Lalganj, Machhlishahar, Bansgaon and Robertsganj that are spread across the state from western to eastern UP.
Barring Nagina in western UP and Lalganj in the far east, BJP had won all 15 seats in the 2019 general election despite the presence of formidable SP-BSP grand alliance on the battle field. The two seats which the BJP lost had gone to the BSP.
The significance of reserved seats in UP is attributed to the substantial presence of SC voters in every seat as they make up 21 per cent of the total population of UP. This 21 per cent is broadly divided into 11.7% Jatavs (biggest group), 3.3% Pasis, 3.15 % Valmikis, 1.2 % Gond, Dhanuk, Khatiks and 1.6% others.
This time, the ruling BJP had been treading very cautiously and expanded the reach of NDA by scrupulously stitching in the smaller caste-based groups including Jayant Chaudhury- led RLD, OP Rajbhar-led SBSP, Sanjay Nishad-led NISHAD, Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal (S), to woo the castes represented by them. In fact, during the last two Lok Sabha elections, the BJP kept its focus on non-Jatav SCs, non-Yadav OBCs and upper castes managing a diverse caste matrix minus Muslims and sailed through impressively.
The party left the Jatavs as they always consolidated in favour of BSP and Yadavs in favour of SP. As per its strategy, the saffron brigade activated its SC cells and asked the leaders to reach out to the Dalits with the message that their interest was safe under the Modi government while highlighting pro-poor welfare schemes, the benefit of which has reached all the sections. Pitted against the ruling alliance is the INDIA bloc to stop the saffron juggernaut.
However, it seems to be an uphill task for the opposition under the present scenario when the opposition is represented just by the SP and the Congress. Moreover, when the ruling alliance convincingly survived the 2019 grand SP-BSP alliance which was much better placed in the caste matrix, the present scenario in the opposition camp seems to be a bit less impressive.
Notably, the loosening hold of the BSP over SC voters is also a reason for the emergence of the BJP as the first choice of non-Jatav Dalits.
As per the political experts, despite riding on its ‘PDA’ which stands for ‘Pichchhda, Dalit and Alpsankhyak,’ the Samajwadi Party will find it difficult to convince the Dalits who take SP’s past regimes as hostile dispensations towards them as then their lands were grabbed and they were intimidated and subjugated by powerful Yadavs in many pockets of the state.
On the other, BSP is no longer a force to reckon with among the Dalits as it has lost all its sheen and failed to open its account in 2014. However, it emerged as a bigger beneficiary of the 2019 alliance with SP as it won 10 Lok Sabha seats and SP failed to take its tally beyond five, but the performance of the BSP on reserved seats was dismal.
In the present election, when BSP’s solo sojourn will make the BJP’s task easier on the reserved constituencies where the non-Dalit voters will also play a deciding role.
Matrix of reserved seats
Nagina:
2019: Girish Chandra (BSP) winning margin: 568378
2014: Yashwant Singh (BJP), winning margin: 367825
2009: Yashvir Singh (SP), Winning margin: 234815
Bulandshahr:
2019: Bhola Singh (BJP); winning margin: 6,81,321
2014: Bhola Singh (BJP), winning margin: 6.04,449
2009: Kamlesh(SP), Winning margin: 2,36,257
Hathras:
2019: Rajvir Diler (BSP) winning margin: 6,84,299
2014: Anshul Verma, winning margin: 3,60501
2009: Kishan Lal Diler (RLD), Winning margin: 2,47,927
Agra:
2019: SPS Baghel (BJP), winning margin: 6,46,875
2014: Ram Shanker Katheria (BJP), winning margin: 5,83,716
2009: Ram Shanker Katheria (BJP), Winning margin: 2,03,697
Shajahanpur:
2019:Arun Kumar Sagar (BJP), winning margin: 6,88,990
2014:Krishna Raj (BJP), winning margin: 5,25,132
2009:Mithilesh (SP), Winning margin: 2,57,033
Hardoi:
2019: Jaiprakash (BJP), winning margin: 5,68,143
2014: Anshul Verma (BJP), winning margin: 3,60,501
2009: Usha Verma (SP), Winning margin: 2,94,030
Misrikh:
2019: Ashok Kumar Rawat (BJP), winning margin: 5,34,429
2014: Anju Bala (BJP), winning margin: 4,12,575
2009: AShok Kumar Rawat (BSP), Winning margin: 2,07,627
Etawah:
2019: Ram Shanker Katheria (BJP), winning margin: 5,22,119
2014: Ashok kumar Dohrey (BJP), winning margin: 4,39, 646
2009: Prem Das (SP), Winning margin: 2,78,776
Bahraich :
2019: Akshaibar Lal (BJP), winning margin: 5,25,982
2014: Savitiri Bai Phule (BJP), winning margin: 4,32, 392
2009: Kamal Kishore (INC), Winning margin: 1,60,005
Mohanlalganj:
2019: Kaushal Kishore (BJP), winning margin: 6,29,999
2014: Kaushal Kishore (BJP), winning margin: 4,55, 274
2009: Sushila Saroj (SP), Winning margin: 2,56,367
Jalaun:
2019: BP Singh Verma (BJP), winning margin: 5,81,763
2014: BP Singh Verma (BJP), winning margin: 5,48,631
2009: Ghanshyam Anuragi (SP), Winning margin: 2,83,023
Kaushambi:
2019: Vinod Kumar Sonkar (BJP), winning margin: 3,83,009
2014: Vinod Kumar Sonkar (BJP), winning margin: 3,31,724
2009: Shailendra Kumar (SP), Winning margin: 2,46,501
Barabanki:
2019: Upendra Rawat (BJP), winning margin: 5,35,917
2014: Priyanka Rawat (BJP), winning margin: 4,54, 214
2009: PL Punia (INC), Winning margin: 3,28,418
Lalganj:
2019: Sangeeta Azad (BSP), winning margin: 5,18,820
2014: Neelam Sonkar (BJP), winning margin: 3,24,016
2009: Baliram (BSP), Winning margin: 2,07,998
Machhlishahr:
2019: Bhola Nath (BP SAROJ) (BJP), winning margin: 4,88,397
2014: Ram Charitra Nishad (BJP), winning margin: 4,38, 210
2009: Tufani Saroj (SP), Winning margin: 2,23,152
Bansgaon:
2019: Kamlesh Paswan (BJP), winning margin: 5,46,673
2014: Kamlesh Paswan (BJP), winning margin: 4,17, 959
2009: Kamlesh Paswan (BJP), Winning margin: 2,23,011
Robertsganj:
2019: Pakauri Lal Kol (AD-S), winning margin: 4,47,914
2014: Chhote Lal (BJP), winning margin: 3,78,211
2009: Pakauri Lal (SP), Winning margin: 2,16, 478
