NEW DELHI: The upcoming summer is expected to be notably hotter, with a significant increase in the number of heatwave days across many parts of the country. Given this forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has cautioned the Election Commission of India to take preventive measures, particularly as the General Election could expose the public to heightened vulnerability to heatwaves, especially during rallies.
“Around a billion people will be casting their votes amid extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves,” noted Kiren Rijiju, Union Minister of Earth Sciences and Food Processing Industries. He emphasized the importance of voters being mindful of heatwaves while heading out to cast their votes.
The IMD has issued preparedness guidelines to various ministries, covering aspects such as agriculture, power, water, and health. In its advisory, the IMD highlighted the significant risks posed by elevated temperatures, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions, who are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses like heat exhaustion and heatstroke.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has developed Heat Action Plans (HAPs) for over 200 cities or districts and recommended states to adopt and implement them. These plans include measures such as stockpiling Oral Rehydration Solution for heat-related illnesses.
The IMD has forecasted higher than normal temperatures and a higher probability of 10-20 days of heatwaves, compared to the usual 4-8 days. This is attributed to the persistence of a strong El Nino phenomenon in regions such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and North Karnataka, which are more prone to heatwaves.
Maximum temperatures are expected to gradually rise by 2-3°C over many parts of the country in the coming weeks. However, the El Nino phenomenon is expected to weaken, with the La Nina phenomenon likely to take over from July, bringing ample southwest monsoon rainfall.
El Nino, characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, typically leads to a weakening of the Indian southwest monsoon, while La Nina, its counterpart, is associated with good rainfall in India.
Despite the increased number of heatwave days, food production, especially wheat, is not expected to be significantly affected, as crops in many states have already reached maturity and are ready for harvest.
The IMD has also issued advisories to states regarding the availability of water in different reservoirs. “There are no heatwave warning conditions in wheat-producing areas except in Madhya Pradesh,” said Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of Meteorology at IMD. He further added, “Wheat production is estimated to be 112.02 million tonnes, which is about 1.46 million tonnes more than last year.”
The IMD has also issued advisories to states with low water reservoir levels, particularly in southern states. This newspaper was the first to report potential water shortage conditions in Western and Southern Indian states, as reservoir levels are significantly lower than last year.
In a joint letter to all Chief Secretaries, the Department of Health and Family Welfare and the NDMA urged state authorities to keep a check on hospital fires. They have also prepared booklets in different languages to create awareness among officials and people on how to address the National Action Plan on heat-related illness.