AHMEDABAD : The BJP is facing a dilemma over the Rajkot Lok Sabha seat in Gujarat, amidst protests from Kshatriyas against BJP candidate Parshottam Rupala’s remarks, while the Patidar community supports him, Rajkot was adorned with banners and placards supporting Rupala on Thursday night.
The BJP is in a tight spot: yielding to Kshatriya pressure by replacing Rupala might provoke the Patidar community, which holds sway over 10 out of Gujarat’s 26 LS seats, a scenario the BJP wishes to avoid.
According to sources, despite extensive protests from the Kshatriya community lasting over a week against Rajkot BJP candidate Parshottam Rupala, it is unlikely that the BJP will change its candidate.
The fear is that such a move could spark inter-caste tensions, particularly if the Patidar community turns against the BJP, potentially resulting in losses for the party in the Lok Sabha. The significance of this lies in the BJP’s significant setback in 2017 when the Patidar reservation movement led to the party winning only 99 out of 182 assembly seats.
The Patidar community holds substantial political influence in Gujarat, with an estimated dominance over 40 Assembly seats and more than seven Lok Sabha seats. Some community leaders even assert their dominance in over 50 Assembly and more than 10 Lok Sabha seats. Representing about 18 percent of Gujarat’s population, the Patidar community’s support is crucial for political parties seeking success in the state.
This year, the Rajkot Lok Sabha constituency boasts a total of 21 lakh registered voters. This constituency comprises assembly constituencies such as Rajkot East, Rajkot West, Rajkot South, Rajkot Rural, Jasdan, Tankara, and Wankaner. During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, five out of the seven mentioned assembly constituencies (Rajkot East, Rajkot West, Rajkot South, Rajkot Rural, and Jasdan Assembly) were represented by elected MLAs from the Bharatiya Janata Party. Congress MLAs held office in the Tankara and Wankaner constituencies at that time.
The 2022 assembly elections yielded a favorable outcome for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Elected MLAs from the BJP now represent all 7 assembly seats falling within the Rajkot Lok Sabha constituency. Furthermore, BJP representatives also hold sway in the Rajkot Municipal Corporation and Rajkot District Panchayat.
Unofficial data suggests that the Leuva Patel community comprises approximately 3.5 lakh voters in the Rajkot Lok Sabha constituency, making it the largest group. Following closely behind are voters from the Koli community, estimated at around 3 lakhs. The Kadva Patidar community ranks third with an estimated 2 lakh voters. Notably, Parshottam Rupala hails from the Kadva Patidar community. However, he is facing opposition from the Kshatriya community, which accounts for only 1 lakh voters. Additionally, voters from various other Rajput communities total approximately 44,000.
Consequently, when the votes of Leuva and Kadwa Patidars are combined out of the total 21 lakh voters, it amounts to 25% of the electorate solely from the Patidar community. Conversely, if the total number of voters from the Kshatriya + other Rajput community is tallied, their collective count represents only 5% of the total electorate.
Therefore, if the Patidar votes consolidate despite opposition from the Kshatriya community, the BJP will gain a significant advantage.
A leader, speaking anonymously, remarked, "Despite opposition from the Kshatriya community, the BJP's candidate Parshottam Rupala may secure victory in the Rajkot Lok Sabha constituency, largely due to the influence of Patidar votes. It is anticipated that he may even clinch victory with a lead of over five lakh votes. Moreover, this could also yield advantages for the BJP in the nearby Porbandar Lok Sabha seat."