BENGALURU: Will Iran escalate the regional tension in the West Asia after it warned of retaliation against Israel over an attack on its embassy in Damascus on April 1, which killed Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and other Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders? While there is a real risk that Iranian-backed proxies may intensify their attacks on US forces and Israel with US President Joe Biden promising “ironclad” support to Israel, former Indian ambassador to Iran Manbir Singh said that the Iranian retaliation against Israel may be “measured”.
“The Iranian retaliation to Israel and the US will be controlled because of the counter repercussions from the two countries and the damage to oil supplies worldwide. Unless it (Iranian) is a very moderate attack of the face saving kind, there will be a massive response from Israel and the US,” said Singh. He added that no country wants or can afford any further escalation of tensions in the Middle East with the over six-month long Israel-Palestine war.
“Even the oil fields of the Sunni Arab kingdom may be hit by Iran if it were to take on a massive offensive, accusing them of being pro US. Barring Qatar, Teheran has traditionally blamed the Arab countries of being pro-American and not upholding the Islamic causes,” said the former diplomat.
Former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE, Talmiz Ahmad said Iran will not “initiate a massive offensive against Israel and the US. It has never shown any interest in a conventional war despite being provoked on several occasions and being under sanctions for more than 40 years. Teheran is not in a position to take on a full fledged war,” said Ahmad. Iran has largely used proxies to attack Israel, while the latter has avoided direct airstrikes on Teheran. With the attack in Syria, Tel Aviv is also bracing for a retaliatory attack by its arch rival provoking fears of a regional conflict.
The US and its European allies are concerned that the attack in Damascus could push Iran to an open war with Israel. This development has heightened concerns about a potential escalation in the already volatile region, with India, France, and Russia issuing travel advisories to their citizens to the region.
On Saturday, the IRGC seized a container ship near the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The crew includes 17 Indians.