NEW DELHI: There is a high probability that India will get above-normal rains this southwest monsoon season, the Indian Meteorological Department said on Monday.
It said seasonal rainfall will be on the higher side of above-normal, with over 106% precipitation in the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm.
The weather office said favourable La Nina conditions, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean—and lesser snow coverage over the northern hemisphere have brightened chances of a bountiful monsoon. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD director general said La Nina conditions are likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon season.
“El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the first half of the monsoon season. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September,” Mohapatra said in a press conference here.
Parts of the northwest, east and northeast India are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, he added. The normal monsoon range is between 96-104% of LPA. The range 104-110% of LPA is considered above normal and above 110% is excess rainfall. Similarly, ranging between 90-96% is considered below normal and less than 90% is deficient rainfall.
El Nino refers to the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, while La Nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures.
What the data shows
Data from the 1951-2023 period shows India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on all the nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the director general of IMD