NEW DELHI: The Indian Meteorological Department has forecasted above-normal rainfall and temperatures during the second half of the southwest monsoon season (August to September) 2024.
According to the department, the rainfall would most likely be above normal (>106% of Long Period Average/LPA).
The IMD also stated the neutral condition of the El Nino phenomenon and different models suggest that La Nina is likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon season towards the end of August.
In India, El Nino is synonymous with poor monsoon whereas La Nina symbolizes bountiful monsoon.
During the August-September monsoon season, normal to above normal rainfall is most likely across the country except in many parts of northeast and adjoining areas of east India, Ladakh, Saurashtra and Kutch. Some isolated pockets of central and peninsular India are likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
However, during the August forecast, the IMD predicted the monthly rainfall across the country to be within the normal range (94 to 106 % of LPA).
According to IMD, normal to above normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the country in August, except in some areas of the southern parts of central and adjoining northern peninsular India, the Northeast and adjoining areas of East India. Below-normal rainfall is expected in several parts of Northwest and South Peninsular India.
Regarding temperature, during August 2024, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for some areas in the Gangetic plains, central India, and the southeast coast, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely to be observed.
Even above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except southeast Peninsular India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely during August 2024.
Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing in the equatorial Pacific region.
The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) and other climate models suggest that La Nina is likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon season towards the end of August.
Presently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The climate model forecast indicates that these neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue until the end of the monsoon season which shows a bountiful monsoon ahead.
Responding to criticism over lapses in alerting severe weather conditions in Wayanad, where a deadly landslide has claimed more than 200 lives with many being still trapped under the debris, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department, said the IMD had issued an orange alert to the district before the disaster.
“Orange alerts were issued on 29 July when we observed the increased probability of bad or extreme weather in Wayanad district. It was the duty of the district administration to be watchful and prepared” Mohapatra said.
