NEW DELHI: Unlike one of the driest and coldest Januarys since 1901, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is now predicting a wetter and hotter February.
The higher-than-normal temperatures forecasted for February could have an impact on the main rabi crop, wheat. Wheat is particularly sensitive to warmer climates during the flowering stage, as it requires a normal colder environment for the creation and shaping of juice.
In their analysis of January, the IMD declared it the fourth coldest and ninth driest month since 1901. The prolonged fog and lower cloud conditions had reduced the intensity of the cold wave.
Meanwhile, the IMD has forecasted above-normal rainfall for February across the country, with the exception of most parts of south peninsular India. In north India, which consists of seven meteorological sub-divisions, including key wheat-growing regions such as East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, rainfall is most likely to be above normal (>122% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).
The IMD has also predicted minimum temperatures above normal for most parts of the country. Similarly, monthly maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal in most parts of Northwest India, West central India, Northeast India, and some parts of East central India.
Due to the higher temperatures, the possibility of cold wave days is lower over central India in February. Additionally, the El Nino conditions prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific are likely to weaken by the end of April, which would boost the monsoon.
The temperatures (20.13 Deg C) and rainfall (7.2 mm) during January 2024 were the ninth lowest since 1901. Rainfall across all of India during January 2024 was approximately 58% below normal. The highest deficit was recorded in the Northwest region, with a 91% deficit, the second lowest since 1901. The recorded rainfall during January was only 3.1 mm. Other regions also experienced rainfall deficits, including East and Northeast (-67%) and Central India (-29%).
Meanwhile, the South peninsula experienced a wetter January, with rainfall recorded as the third highest since 2001.
However, the persistence of fog and low cloud cover over the Indo-Gangetic Plain between December 25, 2023, and January 30, 2024, reduced the cold wave condition, although it led to persistent cold days to severe cold days in many areas. Prolonged fog, an inactive western disturbance, and the absence of north-westerly winds led to the confinement of cold waves in isolated areas, resulting in six reported deaths in Bihar due to the cold wave.
IMD’s data also indicates that maximum and minimum temperatures were unusual in January, with minimum temperatures above normal and maximum temperatures below normal on most days.
Rainfall to be normal in wheat-growing regions
The IMD has forecasted above-normal rainfall for February across the country, with the exception of most parts of south peninsular India. In north India, which consists of seven meteorological sub-divisions, including key wheat-growing regions such as East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi,
Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, rainfall is most likely to be above normal (>122% of the Long Period Average).