NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal rainfall in July in most parts of the country except northeast, and eastern states like some parts of western Bihar, east UP and Jharkhand.
Below-average rainfall is also predicted for north Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. June recorded below-normal rainfall.
July rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal -- more than 106% of the long-period average (LPA) of 280.4 mm, IMD said on Monday in its monthly outlook for rainfall and temperature. IMD warned of high possibility of extreme rainfall in Odisha, Karnataka, Haryana and some parts of UP, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand.
The monsoon will be further intensified in the second half of the monsoon (August-September) as La Nina conditions are likely to be developed while El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific are in a neutral phase.
In India, El Nino phenomenon is synonymous with poor monsoon whereas La Nina indicates bountiful monsoon.
Besides, monthly minimum temperatures of July are likely to be above-normal over many parts of the country except some parts of northwest, adjoining central India and southeastern peninsular. The maximum temperature is likely to be normal to below normal over many parts of the northwest India and south peninsular India except the west coast, IMD said.
The Met Department observed that northwest India was the warmest since 1901 in June while east and northeast regions experienced the fifth warmest month since 1901. It led to the highest number of heatwave days (181 days) in the last 15 years. 2010 had recorded 177 heatwave days.
During the summer this year, India experienced the second hottest period -- 536 heat wave days in terms of met-sub division, the highest in the last 14 years after 2010 (578 days).
Apart from excess heat in June, India also experienced a deficit monsoon. India received overall -11% deficient rainfall, which was 7th lowest rainfall in the past 24 years.
Northwest region received the highest deficit followed by east and northeast, and central India. However, the southern peninsula received above normal rainfall by 14.2%. The reason behind subdued rainfall activity was due to weaker Madden Julian Oscillation, lack of formation of low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.
The IMD observed the trend that there is a higher probability of above normal rainfall if June experienced deficit rainfall.