GUWAHATI: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win a majority of the seats in the Northeast when the results of Lok Sabha elections are declared on Tuesday.
The region has 25 seats – 14 in Assam, two each in Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh and one each in Nagaland, Mizoram and Sikkim. The BJP rules Assam, Arunachal, Tripura and Manipur and is a component of ruling coalitions in Nagaland and Meghalaya.
In 2019, the NDA bagged 19 seats – 14 by BJP and 5 by its allies. The Congress had won four seats. Two seats went to others.
The Northeast went to polls amidst the ethnic conflict between Meiteis and Kuki-Zo tribals in Manipur. There was simmering anger among the voters in the state against the BJP over how it handled the situation. The NDA faced a challenge, particularly in the Meitei-majority Inner Manipur seat which the BJP contested.
The BJP had fielded a minister, Thounaojam Basanta Kumar Singh, in the seat. He vied against Jawaharlal Nehru University professor Angomcha Bimol Akoijam of the Congress.
The BJP had opted out of the race in the Scheduled Tribe-reserved Outer Manipur seat and instead, allowed ally Naga People’s Front (NPF) to contest. The constituency witnessed a triangular fight among NPF, Congress and an independent. Not many Kuki-Zo tribals had turned up to vote.
The polls elsewhere in the Northeast were not significantly impacted by the Manipur violence. The states had local issues apart from the ubiquitous price rise and unemployment.
All eyes will be on Assam on Tuesday. The BJP, in all probability, will win most of the seats. The Congress’ hopes hinge on Jorhat, Nagaon, Karimganj and Dhubri seats.
The Congress’ Gaurav Gogoi contested from Jorhat. The BJP went all guns blazing to defeat him. It had laid its focus especially on the tea garden voters after observing that the Assamese voters got polarised in Gogoi’s favour.
The result in Dhubri, which is a Muslim-majority seat, will shape the future of All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Congress in lower Assam. Three-time sitting MP and AIUDF chief Maulana Badruddin Ajmal had taken on the Congress’ Rakibul Hussain, a former minister.
The AIUDF is influential in the migrant Muslim areas of lower, central and southern Assam but its popularity has somewhat waned in recent years. If Ajmal wins, it will keep the AIUDF afloat in the 2026 state elections. Defeat might impact the party seriously.
The Congress had been influential in Dhubri and the adjoining Goalpara and Barpeta districts for decades. Then, it slowly lost the space to the AIUDF when it emerged as a powerhouse. If Hussain wins, it could well be the first step for the Congress towards regaining the lost ground in lower Assam.
Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to do well also in Tripura and Arunachal but a win for the party in Christian-majority Mizoram and Sikkim appears a distant possibility. The BJP does not have a strong organisational base in the two states.
The BJP had allowed allies Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) to contest in Nagaland and National People’s Party (NPP) in Meghalaya. The NDPP is likely to retain the lone seat. The Tura seat in Meghalaya would possibly go to either NPP or Congress. It is currently held by NPP’s Agatha Sangma.
The Shillong seat braces for a triangular contest among Congress, NPP and Voice of the People Party. State Congress chief Vincent H Pala is the sitting MP.
