CHANDIGARH: For the first time in its political journey, Punjab is set to witness a four-cornered contest in the Lok Sabha elections in Punjab due June 1 in the seventh and final phase of the polls. The battle scene became clear after the alliance talks between the BJP and its former ally the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) broke down. The four key aspirants in the fray are: the ruling AAP, Congress, BJP and SAD, besides other smaller parties.
The BJP last contested the general election independently in 1996 in the state. With AAP facing anti-incumbency and the Congress in disarray, the SAD-BJP alliance could have been a potent force. The BJP and SAD contested 6 and five assembly polls together since 1996.
In the 2019 and 2014 parliamentary polls, out of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJP contested in alliance with SAD and won Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur seats as it contested a total of three seats, including Amritsar. While in the last lok sabha polls SAD won only two seats, Bathinda and Ferozepur. In 2019, the Congress won eight seats (Amritsar, Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Patiala, Faridkot, Anandpur Sahib, Fategarh Sahib and Khadoor Sahib) and AAP won only one, Sangrur.
Talking with this newspaper, political analyst Kuldeep Singh said the LS polls in the state will be path-breaking in many ways. The results will hold mirror to the four principal players: SAD will be able to see how much ground it has recovered with the return of Akali faction leaders.
The BJP can measure the rural turf in Punjab with so many leaders joining the party. Third, AAP will be able to see how much ground it continues to retain in the face of the anti-incumbency. And fourth, the Congress can gauge how much the perceived failure of governance of AAP has translated into votes for the party, Singh said.
In the 2022 assembly polls, SAD and BJP fought separately and suffered huge losses. The BJP won two and SAD three seats in the 117-member assembly. In a landslide, AAP won 92 seats while the Congress managed to get only 18 seats.
One of the reasons why SAD refused to shake hands with BJP again was the farmers’ agitation. Besides, the party wanted a resolution of Bandi Singhs (jailed Sikhs) as part of the pre-poll deal. Another reason was the latest farmers’ protest as the BJP government in neighbouring Haryana did not allow the farmers to move forward up to Delhi. This sharpened the anti-BJP sentiment among the rural Sikh population, the main vote bank of SAD.
On the other hand, the BJP leadership is of the view that the Ram temple consecration and the PM’s development pitch will generate greater support for the party this time. It is also relying on the massive outreach undertaken by the Prime Minister to the Sikhs, including opening of the Kartarpur Corridor, the announcements for celebrations of the birth anniversaries of the Sikh Gurus and the Veer Bal Diwas, commemorating the martyrdom of the sons of 10th Guru Gobind Singh.
Punjab has over 38% Hindu population, which the saffron party wants to consolidate. Besides, many Sikh leaders, including former CM Capt Amarinder Singh, Rana Gurmeet Singh Sodhi and Fateh Jung Singh Bajwa have joined the saffron party. Recently three sitting MPs -- Preneet Kaur (from Patiala), Ravneet Singh Bittu (from Ludhiana) and the lone AAP MP from Jalandhar Sushil Kumar Rinku – have joined the saffron camp.
Sometime back, former ambassador to the US Taranjit Singh Sandhu was inducted into the BJP and he is likely to be given the ticket from native Amritsar. He is the grandson of Sikh leader Teja Singh Samundri, who played a big role in the gurdwara movement.
Interestingly, the vote share of BJP was 6.6% in the last assembly polls as it contested 73 seats on its own.