UNION minister Nitin Gadkari, the BJP’s choice for the Nagpur Lok Sabha seat, is set to face a tough fight owing to several factors, including anti-incumbency and a strong Congress candidate Vikas Thakre as his rival.
Besides, this time, the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) has pledged its support to Congress candidates in the seat. Thakre, a local MLA, has been the party’s city president for over 20 years. Nagpur, along with three other Lok Sabha constituencies, will go to the polls on April 19.
Gadkari, the BJP stalwart, won the 2014 Lok Sabha elections by 26.2% vote margin. He bagged a 54% vote share against Congress’s Vilas Muttemwar with 27.9%. However, in the 2019 general elections, Gadkari’s winning margin reduced to 18.3%. Assembly-wise, while Gadkari bagged 55.9% vote share, Congress’s Nana Patole got 37.6%. The BJP veteran got a significant lead in five segments, while Patole got a marginal lead in the Nagpur North SC reserved seat.
A famous face in Nagpur, Gadkari has, in the past ten years, turned the Congress bastion into his home turf. Interestingly, he is more popular than the BJP as a party.
Despite belonging to a Brahmin community, his inclusive nature and liberal politics earned him loyalists from all castes. Besides, he also developed Nagpur city by increasing the connectivity by all modes of transport.
“Gadkari carries the all-season politician tag, but the sailing cannot be smooth owing to Thakre’s strong presence.
Also, Gadkari carries ten years of anti-incumbency with him with the number of disgruntled people surging. Thakre has a strong network in the city that can be galvanised during the campaign,” a political observer said.
"Thakre belongs to Maratha’s sub caste – Kunbi, which forms a significant chunk of voters who have over the time shifted to BJP. But Thakre can bring them back to Congress. The Dalits and Muslims also form a considerable number in the constituency. If they rally behind their candidate, Gadkari will face an uphill task despite having a visible edge in the Nagpur constituency,” said another observer.
On the other hand, Gadkari relies solely on a well-trained RSS network and his good image to counter Thakre’s network and casts arithmetic. “Nagpur is a very prestigious seat for many reasons – the RSS headquarters – Reshim Baug is in this constituency. Speculations were rife that Gadkari would not be given a ticket as some leaders were unhappy with his liberal and progressive political and prime ministerial aspirations. If BJP meets most of the requisite numbers, then other alienated allies like Shiv Sena (UBT), Akali Dali, etc may join the party to form the government.”
"Chances of some invisible hands working against Gadkari in the coming elections cannot be ruled out,” said a senior journalist from Nagpur