LUCKNOW: Political experts feel that the ruling BJP has already delivered its best by winning 71 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 Lok Sabha elections when Narendra Modi was projected as the PM candidate. The target of winning all 80 seats in 2024 seems to be a hard row to hoe for the BJP. But accomplishing this ‘Mission 80’ in the face of challenges would be crucial to realise the battle cry of ‘400 paar’.
In 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the SP and BSP were in a grand alliance, the BJP lost 16 seats. It later wrested two SP bastions of Rampur and Azamgarh in 2022 bypolls.
“Taking an overview of the scenario after the announcement of candidates for a majority of seats, Mainpuri and Rae Bareli seem to be impregnable forts for the saffron brigade,” says Prof AK Mishra, a political scientist.
Mainpuri is a SP bastion where bahu of SP’s first family Dimple Yadav seems comfortably poised to take the political legacy of her father-in-law late Mulayam Singh Yadav forward. The fight in Rae Bareli, the traditional pocket borough of Congress, will not be easy for the BJP if a Gandhi family member decides to contest there.
“Moreover, it would not be a cakewalk for BJP MP Smriti Irani if Congress leader Rahul Gandhi decides to confront her in Amethi,” says Prof Mishra. Experts feel that BJP would face challenges on a few seats on which voters expected new faces but the party repeated the incumbent MPs or gave ticket to losing candidates expecting that the euphoria after consecration of Ram Lalla will do wonders.
Another challenge is that this time it is not going to be a four-cornered contest like 2014 when BJP-Apna Dal (S) alliance, Congress-RLD-Mahan Dal tie-up and SP and BSP were in the fray. The BJP-led alliance had reaped the benefit of a division of Muslim votes.
Another challenge is that the shift in Dalit votes in favour of the BJP may not be as conspicuous on over 35 seats as it was in 2019 because of the absence of BSP on 37 seats which had gone to SP under seat sharing. Even the summers will pose challenges for party cadre to bring the voter to the booth. “Expecting a positive wave in favour of the party, our voter sits back on the day of polling and it impacts the party’s prospects,” says a BJP leader.
Meanwhile, taking into account the challenges, the BJP claims to have chalked out a better strategy to accomplish the Mission 80. With the consecration of Ram Lalla ahead of the general elections, the BJP is sending out the message of fulfilment of its commitment. That the present INDI Alliance having SP and Congress in tie-up doesn’t seem to be as formidable as SP-BSP-RLD alliance of 2019 is likely to benefit the ruling alliance.
Mayawati’s decision to go it alone will help the BJP and allies by driving division in Muslim vote bank. Moreover, the BJP is allied with smaller caste groups like OP Rajbhar-led SBSP, Sanjay Nishad-led NISHAD, Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal (S), and Jayant Chaudhury’s RLD to minimise losses it suffered in 2019.
