CHANDIGARH: For many, Haryana has come to be known as the Jat land, underlining the predominance of the Jat community in the small state that broke its umbilical cord with Punjab in a three-way separation (1966), mostly on linguistic grounds.
With Punjab at the core of the new entities, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana became its cousins. Since then the Jat factor has been the quintessence of Haryana’s identity.
But the community is not in the majority; it is second to OBCs. That explains why Devi Lal (late former deputy prime minister of Janata regime) remains a revered figure and why Chautalas are still a force to reckon with.
The Jats remain the pivot of poll outcomes. Unless, they are split or are overwhelmed in caste calculations by OBCs and SC votes. That’s what the bipolar Haryana political fight involving the ruling BJP and opposition Congress is about.
The Jat versus non-Jat divide is again visible. Cutting across caste lines and regions, issues like the Agnipath scheme, restoration of old pension scheme, unemployment, government jobs, old-age pension and monthly financial assistance to women, besides law and order are likely to play a key role.
Persistent rage
Then, the lingering anger among farmers. It started during the nationwide protests against the now withdrawn farm laws. The anger turned into frustration when the BJP government stopped the farmers at the Singhu border between Haryana and Delhi. Farmers from Punjab, too, are stopped at Shambu border between Punjab and Haryana border.
The protests by the farmers continue to haunt BJP candidates in these elections also. Former Home Minister and Ambala Cantt candidate Anil Vij, Naraingarh candidate Pawan Saini, Mullana candidate Santosh Sarwan, Narwana candidate Krishan Bedi, Tohana candidate Devender Babli and Uklana candidate Anoop Dhanak have faced farmers’ wrath during campaigning.
Equally significant is the wrestlers’ protest. Top grapplers like Vinesh Phogat, Sakshi Malik and Bajrang Punia protested against the then the all-powerful Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) chief Brijbhushan Sharan Singh for the alleged sexual harassment.
The small state sends a large number of youths to the Army. The Agniveer scheme has now become contentious despite the BJP government announcing that Agniveer youths would be given paramilitary and government jobs.
Caste factor
The Bharamin-SC-OBC combination and non-Jat vote bank could be a deciding factor, says a former sarpanch of a village in Jind. The BJP is focusing on the GT Road belt and southern Haryana, though it did not do that well during the Lok Sabha polls in these areas. The party hopes JJP-ASP and INLD-BSP alliances would make some dent in Congress vote bank. The party leaders believe the Jat vote will be split between Congress, INLD and Jannayak Janata Party.
Southern Haryana holds immense political heft: it has 27 assembly segments in three Lok Sabha seats (Gurugram, Faridabad, and Bhiwani-Mahendragarh). The BJP won all three parliamentary seats in the recent Lok Sabha polls.
The party is also focusing on consolidating OBC votes. The change in leadership in the BJP has further added intrigue. M L Khattar was replaced with an OBC face Nayab Singh Saini, a relatively unknown face but important for garnering support from the OBC community.
On the other hand, the Congress aims to capitalise on the 10 years of anti-incumbency against BJP and hopes to consolidate Jat-SC-Muslim votes.
Rebel trouble
Both parties are facing troubles from rebel candidates in more than 20 assembly constituencies. The JJP-ASP and INLD-BSP alliances are hoping to change this bipolar contest into multi- cornered fight.