CHANDIGARH: In the final vote count, Haryana has sent pollsters back to the drawing board. Turning the exit polls on their head, the state has chosen for a record third time the BJP government since the state came into being in 1966.
Big shots in the state Congress are scratching their head in disbelief even as the BJP enjoys the last laugh. In rough Haryanvi language, Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has “fixed the pole in the ground (lath gaad diya).”
How did it happen, should it have happened, when, on all counts, the Congress began the fight as a hot favourite with a catchy and effective slogan of ‘kisan’ (farmers), ‘pahelwan’ (wrestlers) and ‘jawan’ (soldiers)?
The Congress emphasis was on the Jat vote bank comprising almost 27% of the state’s electorate. There lay the rub: the leader of opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a Jat, pushed for his candidates and got nominations for 72 of them. Of the 28 MLAs of the party, which he preferred, only 13 won.
SS Chahar, former director of Centre of Haryana Studies in Rohtak, said: “BJP’s micro-management—from booth level and above—was well up to the mark. RSS too played a vital role.”
Secondly, Chahar says, migrant and floating vote went to the party while the BJP vote base remained silent this time. “The saffron party focused its entire campaign on former CM Hooda and his son. The non-Jat vote bank, the SCs and OBCs, consolidated in favour of the party as the ruling party announced a string of sops before the polls,” said Chahar. Saini was picked as the face of this formidable combination to helm the state.
While it remains debatable as to what extent “deras” (small religious hubs) impact the poll outcome, it is known that dera chiefs’ say matters a lot in influencing opinion in rural areas. For instance, Dera Sacha Sauda’s main centre is in Sirsa. With multiple branches across the state and its followers mainly drawn from marginalised communities, the impact of parole to Ram Rahim on poll-eve is yet to be gauged.
Besides, the BJP chose fresh faces to combat 10-year anti-incumbency and also focused on OBC vote, which was around 38%. The replacement of M L Khattar as CM with Nayab Singh Saini did the trick for the saffron party.
The infighting in the Congress, especially between Sirsa MP and SC face of the party Kumari Selja and Bhupinder Singh Hooda seems to have played a key role in the party’s loss.
