NEW DELHI: India's private weather forecasting agency Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon for 2025, estimating seasonal rainfall at 103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the June–September period. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not yet released its forecast for this year’s monsoon.
With an error margin of ±5 per cent, Skymet anticipates a normal monsoon within the standard range of 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the LPA. According to the agency, only 20 per cent of the country is expected to receive below-normal rainfall, while the remaining 80 per cent will likely experience normal to above-normal precipitation.
Skymet’s forecast indicates favourable rainfall over Western and Southern India, particularly excess showers along the Western Ghats, including Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Goa.
Adequate rainfall is also expected in the core monsoon zone comprising Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. However, the northeastern region and the hilly states of Northern India are likely to witness below-normal rainfall.
A weaker La Niña—characterised by cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which typically supports good monsoon conditions and a neutral El Niño phase are expected to prevent any significant weakening of the monsoon.
“The remnants of La Niña and ENSO-neutral together will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome,” said Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet.
“Preliminary forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better monsoon prospects. Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal phase,” he further explained.
As per Skymet’s monthly forecast, rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the LPA in June, 102 per cent in July, 108 per cent in August, and 104 per cent in September.