DEHRADUN: A stark reality is unfolding in Uttarakhand, where a significant demographic shift is underway. The state's nine mountainous districts are witnessing a rapid exodus of people, while its four plains districts - Dehradun, Haridwar, Udham Singh Nagar, and Nainital - are grappling with an unexpected surge in population growth.
This imbalance is affecting not only the social and economic fabric but also poses a threat to the political representation and existence of the mountainous regions.
"If no concrete measures are taken to stem this migration before the next delimitation, the political existence of the mountains will be weakened," warns Anoop Nautiyal, an activist and founder of Social Development for Communities (SDC).
In the wake of five South Indian Chief Ministers uniting over delimitation, the issue is also gaining traction in Uttarakhand. While the Delimitation Commission is yet to be formed in the state and the census is pending, indicating time before action, unlike South India, Uttarakhand's concerns stem from its own unique demographic shift – internal migration.
"The population is rapidly migrating from the nine hill districts that formed the basis of the concept of a hill state. Concurrently, the population in the state's four plain districts is increasing at the same rate," highlighted Anoop Nautiyal, founder of SDC, in a comparative analysis shared with TNIE.
He further emphasized, "Election Commission voter lists corroborate these facts. Voter numbers have increased much more rapidly in the plain districts compared to the hills."
This demographic trend is reportedly a major concern for political figures deemed influential in the hill state's interests. "This migration pattern raises serious questions about political representation and the future voice of the hill regions," remarked Jai Singh Rawat, a historian and analyst on the subject, while speaking to TNIE.
According to official sources, "In 2018, the Migration Commission reported that over five lakh people had migrated from Uttarakhand. Of these, more than three lakh people had temporarily left their homes in search of work or due to a lack of basic facilities." Official sources added, "Since then, the state government has been undertaking measures to curb migration and promote reverse migration."
According to the Election Commission's records, the first assembly elections in 2002 saw a total of 5,270,375 voters. Of these, a majority, numbering 3,779,523, resided in the four plains districts of Dehradun, Nainital, Udham Singh Nagar, and Haridwar. This constituted 52.7 percent of the total electorate. In contrast, the nine hill districts accounted for 2,490,852 voters, or 47.3 percent of the total. At the time, the difference in voter share between the plains and hill districts was a marginal 5.4 percent.
However, this gap has widened considerably over the years. The Election Commission data shows a consistent increase in the plains districts' share of the voter base. By 2012, the total number of voters had risen to 6,377,330. This figure further jumped to 8,266,644 in 2022. "In the decade between 2012 and 2022, the electorate swelled by 1,889,314, marking a significant 31 percent increase in voter numbers," stated a source within the Election Commission.
Delving deeper into the regional distribution, the data reveals a pronounced trend. In 2012, the four plains districts were home to 3,658,842 voters, representing 57.4 percent of the state's total electorate. By 2022, this number had surged to 5,010,881, now accounting for 60.6 percent of the total voters.
"Over the span of two decades, the plains districts have witnessed an addition of 1,352,039 voters, a staggering 72 percent growth in their voter base," the source added.