Basant S. Sanghera is a seasoned US foreign policy expert with over a decade shaping strategic and defense ties with India. Formerly at the State Department, he played a key role in the US--India 2+2 Dialogue, coordinated three presidential visits to India, and served as Director for India and the Indian Ocean at the National Security Council at the White House. Most recently, he served as Unit Chief on the India Desk at the State Department. Now Managing Principal at The Asia Group, Basant discusses with Jayanth Jacob the current dynamics and prospects of the US--India relationship. Excerpts.
Beyond Trump’s tariffs and possibly stalled trade talks, do you see the so-called “defining” India-U.S. relationship hitting a wall — or is there still light at the end of the tariff tunnel?
Over the last quarter of a century, the scope of the India-US. relationship has expanded significantly and demonstrated considerable resilience. There are now over three dozen working groups discussing issues ranging from defense cooperation and counterterrorism to cutting-edge technology and energy.
Even during much tougher challenges, repairs were possible but it took champions within both governments. India was heavily sanctioned after the 1998 nuclear tests, and it took significant diplomatic effort — led by Jaswant Singh (then External Affairs Minister) and Strobe Talbott (then US Deputy Secretary of State) — to begin repairing the relationship and that engagement started within a matter of months
Today, the relationship faces a serious crisis and requires an urgent reset. Any further downturn would be damaging for India. Trade negotiators have made considerable progress toward a potential deal, and a breakdown in relations would jeopardize that progress as well as the many other important equities in the relationship. There is a clear need for both repair and reset.
With the additional tariff on Russian oil pushing the total to 50%, it not only creates an economic burden but also makes political repair more difficult for India. Do you think the narrow window offered by Trump leaves any real room to work out a solution?
There is a window before the additional tariff comes into effect. The Russian angle should be de-hyphenated from the broader tariff equation. There is a path for both countries to work something out. Much will depend on the outcome of this week’s talks in Alaska between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
President Trump approaches negotiations with a win-at-all-costs mindset — just look at how he closed deals with other countries. Both sides now need to assess what concessions are possible. Consider how the deal with Japan was talked up, and Taiwan's proposal for a joint venture to develop a liquefied natural gas project in Alaska. India, too, has key defence purchases on the table, and there are already enough signals indicating a path forward. India may live with 25 per cent tariff but 50 per cent is very tough. Again, both teams have negotiated a substantial trade package - the best in 78 years of diplomatic relations - and it would be tragic to lose out on such significant progress
At this point, does it feel more like staring down a serious crisis than finding a clear path forward — especially with Trump keeping at his claim of mediating during the India-Pakistan military standoff, a role India has firmly rejected?
The current crisis has four key elements: trade irritants, political fallout from tariffs, the Russian oil import issue, and how to handle Trump’s claim of mediating between India and Pakistan. A crucial factor now is how quickly the Russia oil issue can be de-hyphenated from the broader trade equation.
Trump has been projecting himself as a global peace-maker — with several countries even backing his Nobel Peace Prize ambitions. He isn’t receiving the kind of endorsement from India that he’s gotten from Pakistan, Israel’s Prime Minister, or the leaders of both Azerbaijan and Armenia.
From his perspective, India’s silence is seen as a lack of acknowledgment, or lack of gratitude or perhaps even disrespect. A simple recognition that Trump exerted pressure on Pakistan might have gone a long way. But India remains firm in rejecting any hyphenation of its relationship with Pakistan.
President Trump and Prime Minister Modi shared a strong personal rapport. Do you think there was perhaps a missed opportunity to better leverage that relationship?
I don’ think that the personal rapport between the two leaders is damaged over the long-term. But there should have been more frequent communication between the two leaders—especially after the Pahalgam attack. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Even now, a conversation between them could create the right opportunity to find a way forward.
It may not be easy for Prime Minister Modi to engage immediately while Parliament is in session, but there are occasions that could facilitate this. Perhaps President Trump acknowledging India’s Independence Day or the two leaders connecting after the Putin-Trump meeting. Trump has three years left in the White House, and both sides need to find fixes for their problems to enable a meaningful repair and reset. That will be crucial going forward.
Do you sense a policy shift in Washington — one that no longer views India as a key counterweight to China?
There are plenty of China hawks in the Trump administration, though many seem to be lying low for now. I'm highly skeptical that U.S.-China ties are on track for any kind of G-2-style alignment. The relationship has deep structural tensions that won’t vanish overnight. As for President Xi Jinping, he’s not exactly known for humility either. Both sides bring strong egos and conflicting interests to the table, making any durable reset unlikely. Whatever the optics, a fundamental strategic convergence between the US and China remains a long shot, and in my opinion not enduring.
So, do you expect President Trump to keep seeing red over BRICS—for its growing alignment, anti-American posture, and challenge to dollar dominance?
It mostly hinges on each countries individual ties with others within the grouping. Let’s wait and see what emerges from Prime Minister Modi’s upcoming visit to China for the SCO Summit. India has often played a balancing role in the bloc, keeping Russia and China in check on several fronts.
