Rising temperatures increases dengue cases, says study
NEW DELHI: A new study by the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) underscored that rising cases of dengue disease are directly linked to rising temperatures due to climate change. Moreover, the study advocates for establishing an early warning system to potentially predict dengue outbreaks more than two months in advance.
The study set off the alarm that, in the absence of timely interventions, rising temperatures and fluctuating monsoon rainfall could increase dengue-related deaths by 13% by 2030 and 23–40% by 2050 in India.
Climate change has already been impacting the Indian monsoon, which is becoming more erratic and uneven. It has led to an increase in the number of dry spell days with high humidity, which is a conducive environment for mosquito breeding. Meanwhile, the study says, heavy rains above 150 mm in a week reduce the prevalence of dengue by flushing out mosquito eggs and larvae.
The study projected that an increasing number of warmer days (temperature and humidity over India) in the future would exacerbate the dengue situation in the country.
The study is published in ‘Scientific Reports’ journal, the research explores how temperature, rainfall, and humidity influence dengue in Pune, a dengue hotspot.
It reveals that a combination of warm temperatures above 27°C, moderate and evenly distributed rainfall, and humidity levels between 60% and 78% during the monsoon season (June–September) increases dengue incidences and deaths in Pune.

The study led by IITM scientists Sophia Yacob and Roxy Mathew Koll sheds light on the intricate links between climate and dengue in India.
Scientists have developed a dengue early warning system that incorporates all potential climate-based dengue factors (predictors) and their combined interactions with dengue at a regional scale.
“The model uses observed temperature, rainfall, and humidity patterns; the dengue model is able to predict potential dengue outbreaks by more than two months in advance, with reasonable skill,” said Koll.
“Such dengue early warning systems can help authorities in a number of states which bear the burden of a high number of dengue cases and can take proactive measures to prevent and manage outbreaks,” he further adds.
States like Kerala, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, which bear a significant dengue burden, can significantly benefit from an advanced early warning system like this to enhance preparedness and reduce the disease’s impact.
The Maharashtra government recognises the study, which will pave the way for future policy-making in a warming world. “This collaboration highlights the importance of bringing together expertise from diverse fields to address complex climate-health challenges,” said Sujata Saunik, Chief Secretary, Govt. of Maharashtra.