NEW DELHI: A new study reveals that climate change is expected to cause a 43% increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events throughout the country, along with a two-fold rise in heatwave days in major Indian cities. It recommends establishing a climate observatory to provide real-time early warnings about extreme weather events to help minimise damage.
Conducted by IPE Global and Esri India, the study titled "Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate" analysed district-level spatial and temporal assessments to develop heat stress scenarios for the years 2030 and 2040.
It aimed to establish a connection between climate change and the increased frequency and unpredictability of extreme rainfall and heatwave events.
According to the study, major cities in India, including Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Patna, Surat, Bhubaneswar, and Thane, are likely to experience a twofold increase in heatwave days by 2030. These rising heatwave conditions are expected to lead to more erratic and intense rainfall.
“Extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant and erratic rainfall events,” said Abinash Mohanty of IPE Global, a co-author of the paper.
The paper underlines the grim situation of climate change's impact. It points out that 8 out of 10 districts in India are going to experience multiple instances of incessant and erratic rainfall by 2030.
“The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have risen significantly in recent decades,” said Mohanty.
The study shows that India has witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days across the March to May and June to September months in last three decades (between 1993-2024). Alarmingly, the last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold increase in extreme heat wave days.
“We found that the monsoon season in India is witnessing an extended summer-like condition except on non-rainy days,” said Mohanty.
According to the study, more than 75% of districts in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur will witness the double whammy of heat stress-induced erratic and incessant rainfall by 2030. Districts of these states will at least witness one instance of heat wave during March, April, and May by 2030.
“We advocate for establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to provide real-time risk assessments at national, devising risk financing instruments to mitigate heat risk and extreme rainfall events,” said Mohanty.
The study also suggests appointing heat-risk champions within district disaster management committees. This will allow these agencies to prioritise and unify the heat-risk mitigation efforts at the district level and, consequently, accelerate heat resilience.