NEW DELHI: India is likely to receive normal monsoon rains this year, experts said, as the World Meteorological Department (WMO) forecast a higher possibility of neutral El Nino conditions during the upcoming season.
El Nino, a key driver of global climatic patterns, is synonymous with weaker monsoons in India. Its reverse phenomenon, La Nina, is known for bountiful monsoons. The weak La Nina event that emerged in December 2024 is likely to be short-lived and end by May. El Nino refers to large-scale warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while La Niña is the opposite.
“It looks like India may receive normal monsoon this year as global forecast suggests a higher probability that the neutral condition of El Nino could prevail from June to September,” said Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather, a private weather solution company.
Forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction indicate that the current cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to normal.
Scientists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that there is a 60% probability that conditions will shift back to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during March-May 2025, increasing to 70% for April-June 2025.
ENSO stands for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. The IMD also predicted a weaker El Nino condition in its season forecast in early March.
Meanwhile, IMD and Skymet Weather will announce the first seasonal forecast of the monsoon in early April.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and the associated impacts on weather and climate patterns globally are an important tool to inform early warnings and early action, and are one of a wide suite of services offered by the WMO community to support decision-making,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“These forecasts translate into millions of dollars worth in economic savings for key sectors like agriculture, energy and transport, and saved thousands of lives over the years by enabling disaster risk preparedness,” she said.
However, the impacts of naturally occurring climate events, such as La Nina and El Nino, on climate patterns are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
January 2025 was the warmest on record, despite weak La Niña conditions being present since December 2024, when observed sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific crossed the La Niña threshold.
Monsoon forecast is an essential parameter for policymakers which has an impact on inflation rates. A normal monsoon is favourable for a more controlled inflation reading while one disturbed by factors like climate shocks could affect the rates negatively.
Quick climate takes
El Nino, a key driver of global climatic, is synonymous with weak monsoons in India.
Its reverse phenomenon, La Nina, is known for bountiful monsoons
Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña impacts weather patterns globally: WMO
There is 60% probability that conditions will shift back to ENSO-neutral :IMD