India is on track to exceed its climate target of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent by 2030 as compared to 2005 levels, according to a new analysis.
The emissions modelling analysis by Delhi-based think-tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE), an NGO, projected that India's energy sector emission intensity could decrease by 48-57 per cent by 2030 as compared to 2005 levels.
However, achieving net zero by 2070 will require additional policy interventions, centred around carbon pricing, along with power pricing reforms, fiscal support for clean technologies, enhanced energy efficiency, and behaviour change initiatives.
These findings published in in the international journal ‘Energy and Climate Change’ as a research paper ‘A new scenario set for informing pathways to India’s next Nationally Determined Contribution and 2070 net-zero target: Structural reforms, LIFE, and Sectoral Pathways.’
The paper broadens the understanding of India’s pathways to its 2070 net-zero target by examining 18 scenarios. This includes a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario that reflects current policy trajectories without additional climate action.
The analysis suggests that India’s 2035 NDC targets could include reducing emissions intensity of GDP between 55-66 per cent relative to 2005 (with most scenarios indicating a 56 per cent reduction) and increasing the non-fossil fuel share in installed power capacity to 60–68 per cent. Such a goal could help balance India’s economic growth ambitions with climate priorities.
One of the most compelling findings of the CEEW-AEEE analysis is the potential of behavioural and lifestyle changes—such as reduced private vehicle use, adoption of energy-efficient appliances, and optimised residential energy use–modelled under India’s Mission LiFE framework. These could deliver up to 10 per cent emissions reductions by 2050 relative to BAU, as well as reduce the pressure on land resources.
In the scenario of high growth, the analysis finds that such a scenario would lead to 63 per cent higher absolute emissions by 2070, compared to BAU. However, the emissions intensity of GDP would still fall by 3 per cent relative to BAU, due to greater adoption of efficient technologies and deeper integration of renewables in India’s energy mix.
The analysis also recommend rationalising of electricity tariffs. Rationalising will lead to unleash equitable energy transition across the sectors. Lower tariffs for industrial and commercial users could accelerate electrification and boost clean energy uptake. Higher residential tariffs, on the other hand, could make rooftop solar more attractive.