The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has projected first advance estimates indicating a gross sugar production of 34.35 million tons (before ethanol diversion) for the current year, which is nearly 16% higher than the total production from the previous year.
Due to this increase in production and a higher opening stock of sugar, the government has already indicated its intention to allow sugar exports this year.
The rise in production is predominantly attributed to Maharashtra and Karnataka, while Uttar Pradesh possibly add only a minor increase in its total output.
With help of pre and post-monsoon satellite imagery, captured in the third week of October 2025, the total assessment of sugarcane acreage in India for the 2025–26 sugar season to be around 5.735 million hectares, compared to 5.711 million hectares in the 2024–25 season, reflecting a slight increase from last year.
However, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, India had total acreage of sugarcane as of on 30 September, at end the Kharif crops, was 5.731 million hectares.
After analysis of satellite imagery, the cane cultivation area of Maharashtra for the 2025-26 sugar season has increased to 1.471 million hectares, up from 1.382 million hectares last year—an improvement of about 6%.
Similarly, In Karnataka, sugarcane area has increased by around 6% to 0.68 million hectares, up from 0.64 million hectares last year.
In Uttar Pradesh, cultivation area has declined by approximately 3% to 2.257 million hectares, down from 2.330 million hectares last season.
However, the overall condition of the standing crop is significantly better than last year.
Due to favourable rainfall and adequate reservoir levels, the improved yields estimated to be in Maharashtra approximately 13 million tons(mt), compared to 9.351 million tons last year—an increase of about 39%.
Similarly, the gross estimation of sugar production in Karnataka possibly increase by around 16%, reaching 6.35 million tons compared to 5.489 million tons in the 2024–25 sugar season.
In Uttar Pradesh, both yield and recovery are likely to improve, with gross sugar production (before diversion) estimated at 10.32 million tons, compared to 10.101 million tons last year.
The total consumption of sugar in the country is around 28.5 mt and diversion of ethanol estimated to be around 3.4 mt. Along with opening stock 5 mt and remaining sugar at the end of current sugar season (September 2026), the country will end up with around 7.5 mt of extra sugar.
The government has already indicated allowing of sugar export after sensing the possibility of a glut in the domestic market.
