NEW DELHI: As Bihar gears up for a two-phase election on November 6 and 11, it will decide the fate of the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) of opposition, which is eying to return to power in the state. For the ruling NDA, led by the BJP and JD(U), retaining power is about setting the tone for 2029 LS polls.
While the grand alliance is yet to announce its seat-sharing formula, the polls are seen as a test of unity for the main players Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress. The uneasy relationship between the two may deepen as Congress is looking to bargain for some ‘winnable seats’.
The Congress contested 70 seats in 2020 but won only 19. The party is expected to contest 60-65 seats to accommodate alliance partners, said a leader. The RJD contested 144 seats and won 75, while the CPI(ML) contested 19 and won 12.
According to Opposition leaders, another factor that will dent their prospects is the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls that cut the number of electors from 7.89 crore to 7.43 crore. They see it as a potential tool of disenfranchisement of economically backward, migrants, Muslims, Dalits, and other marginalised groups who support them.
In that context, the Election Commission of India’s actions will be under intense scrutiny and the Bihar election will be a test of its credibility. The elections will also reveal whether Opposition’s main plank of BJP’s alleged ‘vote theft’ resonated with the Bihar voters.
The NDA hopes to win on ‘20 years of development’ and welfare programmes for youth and women; a defeat could weaken its march to the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
The NDA is banking on both central schemes and lastminute welfare pushes to secure a renewed mandate.
JD(U) chief and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar now faces a direct challenge not just from a resurgent Opposition but from his own electoral fatigue. A victory would cement his legacy while a defeat could end his relevance in Bihar politics and weaken his party’s standing within NDA.
The BJP has deeper stakes. A strong performance would reinforce its dominance across eastern India and provide momentum for upcoming battles in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. But a poor showing could deal a psychological blow and embolden the Opposition.
Meanwhile, the entrant Prashant Kishor’s party is expected to leave a dent on the Opposition vote banks especially the upper caste and the young.
