SRINAGAR: The by-elections for Budgam and Nagrota Assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir have turned into a high-stakes political battle for the ruling National Conference (NC) and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The outcome of these contests could significantly influence the broader political landscape in the Union Territory.
There is a lot at stake for both the ruling NC and the opposition BJP in the November 11 by-elections to the two Assembly seats.
The Budgam seat holds particular significance for the ruling NC. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had contested from both Budgam and Ganderbal constituencies in last year’s Assembly elections. He won from both seats but retained Ganderbal, the traditional stronghold of the Abdullah family, and vacated Budgam.
However, much has changed since last year’s polls and Omar’s assumption of office as Chief Minister.
Omar’s NC had contested the 2024 Assembly elections with promises of restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s political and legal status, repealing the Public Safety Act (PSA), introducing a job package for youth, providing 200 units of free electricity, and implementing a balanced reservation policy.
After coming to power, however, Omar shifted focus from the restoration of Article 370 to pushing for the restoration of statehood to J&K. He has also faced criticism for failing to deliver on several key poll promises, including providing 200 units of free electricity and revising the existing job reservation policy, which currently allocates only 30 per cent of seats to Open Merit candidates.
A cause of concern for the Abdullahs and the party, NC’s firebrand leader and Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah has reportedly developed differences with the Chief Minister over his shifting priorities and failure to uphold the party’s manifesto commitments on Article 370 and the balanced reservation policy.
Ruhullah, who enjoys significant influence and a strong voter base in Budgam, could pose a challenge for the party if he remains distant. It would be troublesome for the NC if he chooses not to campaign for its candidate in the upcoming bypoll.
Given the high stakes of the Budgam by-election, NC insiders said the Abdullahs may reach out to Ruhullah to sort out differences and persuade him to campaign for the party candidate.
While the Budgam seat will test public support for the NC after its return to power, the Nagrota seat in Jammu is equally important for the BJP as a measure of its continued popularity in the region.
The Nagrota seat fell vacant following the death of sitting BJP MLA Devender Singh Rana in November last year. The party is expected to field his daughter, Devyani Rana, who currently serves as Vice President of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha (BJYM).
Political observers said the BJP would be banking on sympathy votes for Devyani to retain her father’s seat. “However, it remains to be seen whether all of her late father’s support base votes for her in the polls. The constituency also has a significant Gujjar population, and it will be interesting to note how that vote swings,” they said.
In the last Assembly elections, there was a friendly contest between the NC and the Congress from the Nagrota seat. This time, it is likely that the Congress may support the NC, whose candidate had finished second in the previous polls.
Both the NC and the BJP are expected to deploy all available resources in the bypolls, which are being viewed as a key political test for the two parties.
