SRINAGAR: Dynastic influence and women’s political leadership are at the forefront of the high-stakes Jammu and Kashmir Assembly bypolls, with three members of prominent Aga Shia dynasties contesting in Budgam and a direct face-off between women candidates of the National Conference (NC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Nagrota constituency.
In the Budgam Assembly seat, which has a mixed Shia-Sunni demographic and was vacated after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah retained the Ganderbal seat, 20 candidates have filed their nominations.
Three candidates from influential Aga Shia families — NC’s Aga Syed Mehmood, a veteran politician and former MLA; PDP’s Aga Muntazir Mehdi; and BJP’s Aga Syed Mohsin Mosvi — are the main contenders. The NC and PDP candidates are related, with Aga Muntazir being the nephew of Aga Mehmood.
In the 2024 Assembly polls, PDP’s Aga Muntazir Mehdi secured 17,525 votes, while Omar Abdullah won the seat with 35,804 votes.
Another influential figure in Budgam politics, Aga Ruhullah, a sitting NC MP and a prominent Shia leader, has chosen to remain on the sidelines.
Ruhullah has expressed his dissatisfaction with the Omar government’s “soft” stance towards the Centre and its alleged failure to push for the restoration of Article 370 and equitable job reservations.
Ruhullah, who has been sidelined by the party due to his criticism of government policies, has refused to campaign for the NC candidate. His absence poses a significant challenge to the ruling party, particularly due to his growing support among the youth. Party insiders reportedly fear that his tacit backing of rival candidates could alter the outcome against the NC.
In the absence of Ruhullah’s influence, NC candidate Aga Mehmood is relying on his traditional support base and the party’s vote bank.
Meanwhile, PDP’s Aga Muntazir and BJP’s Aga Mohsin, along with other opposition candidates, are banking on anti-incumbency and alleged unfulfilled government promises, including the provision of 200 units of free electricity, 12 gas cylinders, and one lakh jobs.
In Nagrota, the bypoll has taken on a gender and legacy dimension. The election was necessitated following the death of sitting BJP MLA and former NC leader Devender Singh Rana in October last year.
To retain the seat and leverage a sympathy wave, the BJP has fielded his daughter, Devyani Rana, who is making her electoral debut. She is reportedly banking on her father’s political legacy and the BJP’s organisational strength.
The NC has nominated Shameem Begum, after its ally, the Congress, refused to contest the seat due to differences that emerged following the Rajya Sabha elections.
Shameem, a sitting District Development Council (DDC) member, is expected to draw support from the Gujjar community and NC’s vote base, while also counting on Congress supporters to consolidate opposition votes against the BJP.
Ten candidates, including Devyani, Shameem and former minister Harsh Dev Singh, are contesting from Nagrota. Although Harsh Dev’s candidacy has introduced a triangular contest, political analysts suggest the main battle is between Devyani and Shameem.
However, it is uncertain whether Congress leaders, given the ongoing strain in their alliance with the NC, will actively campaign for Shameem.
In the 2024 Assembly polls, the late BJP leader Devender Rana won the Nagrota seat with 48,113 votes. NC’s Joginder Singh was the runner-up with 17,641 votes, while Balbir Singh of Congress secured 5,979 votes.
The bypolls in Budgam and Nagrota are being seen as a litmus test for the popularity of the Omar Abdullah-led government in Kashmir and the BJP’s political dominance in the Jammu region.
